Earnings Chatter
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
At a glance: 38 S&P 500 names report today — headlined by Eli Lilly and Disney (both pre-open), Sandisk and Western Digital (both after the close, a clean back-to-back read on the storage/AI-capacity trade), plus Uber, CVS, AppLovin and McKesson.
The tape ahead
An eight-name marquee slate spans four debates: GLP-1 franchise maturity at Lilly, the NAND/HDD pricing supercycle at Sandisk and Western Digital, streaming-and-parks execution at Disney, and the autonomous-vehicle map at Uber — with CVS, AppLovin and McKesson rounding out health care and ad-tech.
Eli Lilly (before the open): consensus EPS of $6.58 versus $6.31 a year ago, down 23% vs.prev.Q. on revenue of $20.69B, up 4% vs.prev.Q. The debate has moved past whether Zepbound/Mounjaro keep growing to the mix of that growth — volume versus price/channel — and, the newer swing factor, whether oral GLP-1 Foundayo is expanding the market or just cannibalizing injectable share; uptake has read as slower than hoped. Lilly tends to raise full-year guidance through the year, so a raise is close to expected — the size, plus any color on the administration's Medicare/cash GLP-1 pricing deal, is what moves the stock. Unusually, the 7.71% implied move sits below the 8.6% average realized move over the last eight prints (75% beat rate) — the options market pricing this one calmer than Lilly's own history. Read-across: Novo Nordisk. Sell-side tone skews bullish, tempered by valuation caution.
Sandisk (after the close): consensus EPS of $34.52 versus $0.29 a year ago (up 47% vs.prev.Q.) on $8.39B of revenue, up 41% vs.prev.Q. The print is a referendum on the NAND pricing supercycle: bulls cite capacity reallocated toward AI DRAM/HBM and fabs reluctant to add NAND supply; bears point to fresh Korean supply additions and decelerating AI capex reigniting downside after a sharp group drawdown. Company guidance reportedly sits below the sell-side build — a real expectations gap — and an Investor Day shortly after the print may pull fuller multi-year framing off tonight's call. The 15.39% implied move towers over the 2.68% average realized move since the spinoff (100% beat rate, five prints) — the richest implied-vs-realized gap of the day. Micron's recent blowout drew a sell-the-news reaction, a pattern worth watching; Western Digital reports the same evening. Short interest is reportedly near record levels even with the stock near highs.
Western Digital (after the close): consensus EPS of $3.30 versus $1.66 a year ago (up 21% vs.prev.Q.) on $3.70B of revenue, up 11% vs.prev.Q. Now a pure hard-drive story post-spinoff, the debate is durability of pricing power — WDC and Seagate both describe nearline capacity as essentially committed as hyperscalers lock up AI storage supply, while skeptics want proof spot-market premiums are actually landing in blended ASPs and margin. Management's own guide reportedly sits below the sell-side drift, raising the bar. The 13.15% implied move sits well above the 2.53% average realized move (88% beat rate); the CAGR spread (+2.5% 3y, -1.6% 10y) underscores how cyclical the earnings base has been. Read-across: Seagate's well-received recent print. Sell-side tone is bullish with target upgrades.
Disney (before the open): consensus EPS of $1.85 versus $1.61 a year ago (up 18% vs.prev.Q.) on $25.41B of revenue, up 1% vs.prev.Q. — essentially flat. The 6.17% implied move sits almost exactly on the 6.16% average realized move (100% beat rate), the options market pricing this one right in line with history. Swing factors: Disney+ subscriber/profitability growth, how the standalone ESPN DTC app is performing roughly a year in, and whether the Parks "yield over volume" strategy holds into summer travel. Streaming profit growth guidance has been reiterated, but the prior quarter's operating income fell short of the company's own guide on higher sports-rights costs — a live cost-discipline caution; an extra reporting week this quarter also complicates comps. Read-across: Warner Bros. Discovery (Thursday), Comcast/Netflix on streaming.
Uber (before the open): consensus EPS of $0.83 versus $0.63 a year ago (a wide $0.54–$1.03 range across 32 estimates) on $14.26B of revenue, up 8% vs.prev.Q. EPS is flagged up 541% vs.prev.Q. — a base-rate artifact, not a signal: last quarter's reported EPS was depressed almost entirely by a one-time, non-cash mark-to-market charge on Uber's Didi/Grab equity stakes, not an operating miss, which is also why last quarter's headline surprise printed at -81.74% despite steady underlying execution. The real debate is the autonomous-vehicle map: Uber's Waymo exclusivity is unwinding in key markets, with the two now lobbying against each other's preferred regulatory framework, and the question is whether Uber's multi-partner model (Wayve, WeRide) offsets that loss or a more independent Waymo disintermediates the marketplace. The prior guide predates the Waymo rupture going public, so this is management's first direct comment. The 7.39% implied move sits above the 6.15% average realized move (75% beat rate). Read-across: DoorDash (same evening). Sell-side positioning is decisively bullish — a one-sided setup that raises reaction risk to a vague AV answer.
AppLovin (after the close): consensus EPS of $3.75 versus $2.39 a year ago (up 5% vs.prev.Q.) on $1.94B of revenue, also up 5% vs.prev.Q. The 12.5% implied move against just a 2.06% average realized move (100% beat rate) is the day's richest implied-vs-realized gap outside Sandisk. The gaming-studio divestiture is a settled fact now; the debate is whether the Axon ad platform keeps compounding as self-serve access widens, with the e-commerce push (Shopify/Amazon-seller advertisers) the swing factor bulls frame as a second growth leg several multiples the size of gaming. Guidance beat consensus last quarter and the stock carries a beat-and-raise streak; sell-side targets sit well above the share price even after a pullback. The Trade Desk's recent disappointment reignited the open-web-vs-walled-garden debate, with AppLovin cited as the AI-native counter-example. A money-laundering short report earlier this year was later withdrawn; coverage since has been constructive.
CVS Health (before the open): consensus EPS of $1.85, roughly flat against $1.81 a year ago but down 28% vs.prev.Q. on revenue of $100.09B, down under 1% vs.prev.Q. The print remains almost entirely an Aetna medical-cost story, particularly Medicare Advantage: last quarter marked a visible cost-control inflection, and the question is whether that's structural or a one-off. Secondary threads: PBM/Caremark reimbursement pressure and Oak Street/Signify integration progress. CVS raised full-year guidance meaningfully after last quarter's beat, resetting the bar — a merely in-line print risks reading as disappointment against a re-rated, bullish-skewed stock. UnitedHealth and Cigna both beat-and-raised ahead of this print, raising the bar further. Trailing EPS CAGRs are negative across every horizon (1y/3y/5y/10y), a multi-year decline backdrop that makes the recent stabilization matter more.
McKesson (after the close): consensus EPS of $9.54 versus $8.26 a year ago, down 18% vs.prev.Q. on revenue of $103.74B, up 8% vs.prev.Q. — the sequential EPS step-down is normal seasonality, since fiscal Q4 (just reported) is McKesson's strongest quarter and fiscal Q1 its softest. The debate: U.S. pharma distribution volumes, mix shift toward specialty/oncology and biosimilars, and GLP-1 volumes — a top-line tailwind but a margin drag given lower-margin branded-drug economics. McKesson issued fiscal 2027 guidance alongside its fiscal 2026 results; a live overhang is the planned Medical-Surgical Solutions separation (tax-free IPO-then-spin, Apollo taking a minority stake), where investors may want a timing update. Notably, the straddle expiry is August 21 rather than the usual two-day window, implying the market is pricing risk beyond the print itself; the 6.7% implied move sits well above the 2.02% average realized move (100% beat rate). Read-across: Cencora, also reporting this morning.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS range | Prev Q EPS | EPS vs prev.Q | Rev. cons. | Rev. vs prev.Q | Implied move | Hist. avg | Beat rate | EPS 1Y | EPS 3Y | EPS 5Y | EPS 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lilly (Eli) LLY Health Care · $994.90B | Pre-open | $6.58 | $5.28 – $9.08 · 20 est | $8.55 | -23.0% | $20.69B | +4.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 75% | +95.9% | +49.3% | +27.6% | +26.1% |
Sandisk SNDK Information Technology · $211.42B | After-close | $34.52 | $32.01 – $38.55 · 17 est | $23.41 | +47.4% | $8.39B | +41.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
Western Digital WDC Information Technology · $189.08B | After-close | $3.30 | $3.20 – $3.60 · 18 est | $2.72 | +21.3% | $3.70B | +10.8% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 88% | — | +2.5% | — | -1.6% |
Walt Disney Company (The) DIS Communication Services · $170.49B | Pre-open | $1.85 | $1.76 – $1.98 · 22 est | $1.57 | +18.1% | $25.41B | +1.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 100% | +152.2% | +58.5% | — | +3.4% |
Uber UBER Industrials · $146.54B | Pre-open | $0.83 | $0.54 – $1.03 · 32 est | $0.13 | +540.8% low prior-Q base | $14.26B | +8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 75% | +3.5% | — | — | — |
AppLovin APP Information Technology · $140.99B | After-close | $3.75 | $3.53 – $4.15 · 17 est | $3.56 | +5.5% | $1.94B | +5.4% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 100% | +114.6% | — | — | — |
CVS Health CVS Health Care · $133.23B | Pre-open | $1.85 | $1.58 – $1.94 · 23 est | $2.57 | -28.0% | $100.09B | -0.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 88% | -62.0% | -24.7% | -23.9% | -11.4% |
McKesson Corporation MCK Health Care · $97.22B | After-close | $9.54 | $9.25 – $9.89 · 15 est | $11.69 | -18.4% | $103.74B | +7.7% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 100% | +49.2% | +15.3% | — | +14.8% |
Also reporting today
Beyond the marquee eight, 30 more S&P names print today: DoorDash (after the close) extends the gig-economy debate started by Uber this morning; health care is the deepest bench (Cencora, Steris, Zimmer Biomet, Solventum, Insulet, Charles River); financials (Allstate, MetLife, Block, Corpay, Global Payments) and energy (Phillips 66, Occidental, Texas Pacific Land, APA) round out the day.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS vs prev.Q | Rev. cons. | Rev. vs prev.Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DoorDash DASH Consumer Discretionary | After-close | $0.47 | +12.2% | $4.34B | +7.5% |
Phillips 66 PSX Energy | Pre-open | $7.50 | +1430.8% low prior-Q base | $44.04B | +35.3% |
Motorola Solutions MSI Information Technology | After-close | $3.85 | +14.3% | $3.00B | +10.6% |
Honeywell Aerospace HONA Industrials | After-close | $2.12 | — | $4.61B | +5.9% |
Allstate ALL Financials | After-close | $6.07 | -43.0% | $17.30B | +3.3% |
MetLife MET Financials | After-close | $2.29 | -5.4% | $19.55B | +5.0% |
Cencora COR Health Care | Pre-open | $4.35 | -8.5% | $84.15B | +7.4% |
Realty Income O Real Estate | After-close | $0.42 | +24.3% | $1.44B | -0.3% |
Occidental Petroleum OXY Energy | After-close | $1.85 | +74.4% | $7.14B | +36.5% |
Block, Inc. XYZ Financials | After-close | $0.87 | +2.8% | $6.48B | +6.9% |
Axon Enterprise AXON Industrials | After-close | $1.84 | +14.5% | $876.5M | +8.6% |
Expedia Group EXPE Consumer Discretionary | After-close | $5.25 | +168.0% low prior-Q base | $4.17B | +21.8% |
| Also: IRM, KHC, ATO, TPL, CPAY, GPN, STE, NI, CDW, ZBH, CF, HST, NWSA, SOLV, ALB, APA, PODD, CRL | |||||
Scorecard — reported since we last wrote
Most of the batch beat on both lines, but the tape was unforgiving of clean beats: AMD beat EPS by 3.06% and revenue by 2.04% and still fell 9.33% after hours, and Rockwell Automation and W.W. Grainger (both beat both lines) sold off -7.43% and -5.16% respectively. Aptiv was the sharpest divergence — a 14.08% EPS beat against a 1.29% revenue miss — and still fell 16.62%, the worst reaction of the group. NRG Energy was the cleaner story: missed both lines (EPS -14.37%, revenue -3.91%) and fell 15.48%. Kimberly-Clark ran the other way, missing both lines (EPS -10.27%, revenue -0.82%) yet rising 3.73%. The two prints where reaction matched the beat: Zebra Technologies (EPS +45.10%, revenue +3.94%, stock +26.47%) and Gartner (EPS +17.06%, revenue +1.61%, stock +22.61%).
| Company | Time | EPS actual | EPS vs cons. | Rev. actual | Rev. vs cons. | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Advanced Micro Devices AMD | After-close | $1.66 | +3.1% | $11.54B | +2.0% | -9.3% AH |
Caterpillar Inc. CAT | Pre-open | $8.17 | +31.8% | $20.54B | +7.0% | +5.6% |
Merck & Co. MRK | Pre-open | $-0.13 | +49.5% | $16.61B | +1.5% | +0.2% |
Arista Networks ANET | After-close | $1.02 | +15.2% | $3.04B | +7.2% | +8.7% AH |
Amgen AMGN | After-close | $6.29 | +12.0% | $10.05B | +6.7% | +0.7% AH |
McDonald's MCD | Pre-open | $3.38 | +1.8% | $7.10B | -0.4% | +1.2% |
Gilead Sciences GILD | After-close | $-6.75 | +6.9% | $7.80B | +5.4% | +0.7% AH |
Booking Holdings BKNG | After-close | $2.54 | +4.2% | $7.35B | +2.3% | +4.9% AH |
Pfizer PFE | Pre-open | $0.77 | +12.9% | $15.03B | +4.5% | +1.5% |
Duke Energy DUK | Pre-open | $1.43 | +9.6% | $7.59B | -1.1% | -0.0% |
Marathon Petroleum MPC | Pre-open | $17.73 | +27.1% | $52.34B | +26.3% | +1.8% |
Cummins CMI | Pre-open | $6.94 | -3.2% | $9.46B | +1.3% | -2.0% |
Emerson Electric EMR | After-close | $1.71 | +2.0% | $4.87B | +1.5% | -0.3% AH |
EOG Resources EOG | After-close | $5.07 | +2.1% | $8.62B | +12.0% | -0.1% AH |
Apollo Global Management APO | Pre-open | $2.11 | -2.2% | $1.34B | +0.8% | +2.9% |
TransDigm Group TDG | Pre-open | $10.87 | +5.2% | $2.74B | +2.5% | -0.8% |
W. W. Grainger GWW | Pre-open | $12.01 | +6.3% | $5.02B | +1.3% | -5.2% |
Ametek AME | Pre-open | $2.09 | +4.8% | $2.04B | +4.5% | +4.2% |
| Also reported (27 of 32 above consensus): ROK, DVN, IDXX, PRU, SYY, PEG, ADM, WAT, KMB, NRG, Q, FIS, EXPD, IFF, DD, BR, BALL, KIM, J, DVA, LDOS, DOC, AIZ, ZBRA, RVTY, PNW, APTV, WYNN, IT, HSIC, PSKY, MOS | ||||||
Rest of the week
Thursday reloads hard with 30 names: ConocoPhillips and Parker Hannifin headline a pre-open Energy/Industrials cluster with Howmet Aerospace, and Constellation Energy leads a Utilities bloc (Sempra, Consolidated Edison, Evergy) running through Friday's PPL. After the close, Datadog and Airbnb are the growth-software/travel reads, Warner Bros. Discovery extends today's Disney streaming debate directly, and Aflac/AIG round out financials. Friday is light — Vistra, Take-Two Interactive and PPL close out the week.
| Day | Company | Time | Cons. EPS | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday Aug 6 | ConocoPhillips COP | Pre-open | $2.91 | 3.9% |
Parker Hannifin PH | Pre-open | $8.52 | 9.5% | |
Howmet Aerospace HWM | Pre-open | $1.26 | — | |
Datadog DDOG | Pre-open | $0.60 | — | |
Constellation Energy CEG | Pre-open | $2.45 | — | |
Monster Beverage MNST | After-close | $0.59 | — | |
Airbnb ABNB | After-close | $1.28 | — | |
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD | Pre-open | $-0.13 | — | |
Republic Services RSG | After-close | $1.83 | — | |
Aflac AFL | After-close | $1.79 | — | |
Sempra SRE | Pre-open | $1.07 | — | |
Targa Resources TRGP | Pre-open | $2.77 | — | |
| Also: BDX, MCHP, KDP, AIG, ED, KVUE, RMD, ZTS, FISV, FOXA, RL, VTRS, EVRG, AKAM, GEN, TRMB, TTD, TAP | ||||
| Friday Aug 7 | Vistra Corp. VST | Pre-open | $1.80 | 7.4% |
Take-Two Interactive TTWO | Pre-open | $0.34 | 9.1% | |
PPL Corporation PPL | Pre-open | $0.35 | — | |
Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.