Earnings Chatter

Monday, August 10, 2026

At a glance: Just 2 S&P 500 names report today — the entire slate — both marquee: Simon Property Group (after the close) and Ferguson Enterprises (before the open).

The tape ahead

Just two names on the board today, but they span the calendar's opposite ends: a mall REIT after the close and a building-products distributor before the open, with sequential accounting quirks running in opposite directions for each.

Simon Property Group (after the close): consensus EPS of $1.57 versus $1.36 a year ago, up 29% vs.prev.Q on revenue of $1.61B, down 8% vs.prev.Q. The EPS/revenue split is typical mall-REIT noise rather than a demand signal — ancillary income like lease-termination and settlement fees is lumpy quarter to quarter, and Simon's core leasing metrics (occupancy, releasing spreads, retailer sales per square foot) have stayed firm through the year. The more important context for the print sits away from GAAP EPS entirely: Simon's 25% beat rate and last quarter's double-digit miss look worse than the underlying business, since GAAP EPS for a REIT is distorted by depreciation and one-off property gains or losses — both the company and the Street key off funds from operations per share instead, which has topped estimates in every recent quarter. Watch for commentary on tariff-driven cost pressure filtering through to tenants and any update on capital recycling. The 4.39% implied move is priced well above the 1.3% average realized move over the last eight prints, a rich setup even before the weak GAAP beat-rate history is factored in. Trailing EPS CAGRs tell a similarly skewed story: the +95% 1-year figure is almost certainly a low-base artifact from a soft year-ago comparison, with the 3- and 5-year windows (+28%, +32%) a more representative read on the growth trend than either the 1-year spike or the milder +9% 10-year figure.

Ferguson Enterprises (before the open): consensus EPS of $3.30 versus a $3.00–$3.42 range on 17 estimates, up 45% vs.prev.Q on revenue of $8.60B, up 15% vs.prev.Q. There's no year-ago comparable in today's data — Ferguson shifted to a calendar fiscal year at the start of 2026, so this is only the second quarter reported under the new convention, which limits clean year-over-year framing for now. The sequential jump is mostly seasonal: non-residential and waterworks/mechanical demand build through the spring-summer construction season, the channel that has been carrying the company on double-digit growth and share gains on large capital projects, while residential stays the softer leg on weak housing starts and permit activity. The debate into the print is how much further tariff- and steel-driven cost inflation gets passed through without compressing margin, and whether non-residential strength can keep offsetting the residential drag. At 8.08%, the implied move sits modestly above the 7.52% average realized move over the last eight prints — a fair-to-slightly-rich setup, but backed by the best beat-rate of today's two names at 62%. Trailing EPS CAGRs are negative across the 1-, 3- and 5-year windows (-57%, -24%, -9%), with only the 10-year figure roughly flat — a reminder of how much the multi-year residential downturn has weighed on the trend even as this quarter's sequential numbers point toward recovery.

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Three names to score from Friday's slate. Take-Two was the clean outcome: a swing from an expected $0.21 per-share loss to a $0.35 profit (a 267.4% surprise) alongside a modest 1.9% revenue beat, and the stock rallied 6.04% as the GTA VI pre-order commentary flagged in Friday's preview landed as strongly as the setup implied. PPL missed on both lines — EPS -4.0%, revenue -4.3% — yet still rose 2.43%, a reaction that runs counter to the surprise; with full-year guidance reaffirmed and the Pennsylvania/Kentucky data-center pipeline continuing to grow, the market looks to be weighting the multi-year build-out story flagged Friday over a soft quarter. Vistra is the incomplete read: revenue missed by a wide 27.2% against consensus, EPS actual isn't available in today's data, and the stock barely moved (-0.56%) — a muted reaction for a top-line miss that size, consistent with the market weighting adjusted-earnings and full-year guidance metrics outside what we track here more heavily than the GAAP revenue print.

Rest of the week

Three sessions left to round out the week. Tuesday is the busiest by count — Lumentum, Cardinal Health, Supermicro and Bio-Techne — with Lumentum still carrying the richest implied move on the board. Wednesday brings the week's largest remaining name, Cisco, alongside Coherent and Amcor, and Thursday closes with Applied Materials and Tapestry. The AI-capex supply-chain thread flagged in Friday's outlook carries through unchanged: Lumentum, Supermicro, Cisco, Coherent and Applied Materials all sit somewhere in the AI-infrastructure buildout, giving the rest of the week a read-through from today's real-economy focus back to the hardware side of the same trade.

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.