The Market Wrap.

At a glance: Just one S&P 500 name reports today — Casey's, after the close — the lone print on an otherwise empty Tuesday calendar.

The tape ahead

Casey's is the only S&P 500 name on today's calendar, reporting fiscal first-quarter results after the close. That quarter (May–July) is the convenience retailer's seasonally strongest window, capturing peak summer driving and prepared-food demand, and the print will be read as an early test of the newly unveiled three-year plan to add at least 400 stores — half new builds, half small-deal M&A — layered on top of the existing fuel-margin and inside-sales algorithm. Consensus of $6.82 compares to $4.37 last quarter (up 56% vs prev.Q.) and $5.55B in revenue compares to $4.57B (up 21.5% vs prev.Q.); both jumps are the calendar at work — Casey's own summer seasonality — rather than a change in trajectory, and consensus sits above the $5.77 booked in the year-ago quarter. Set against the stock's own growth history, that keeps the quarter roughly in line with its trailing-year EPS pace (+30.9%) but well ahead of its 3/5/10-year rates (+17.7%/+17.8%/+12.7%), a reminder of how much the past year's fuel-margin strength and acquisition pace have pulled the growth curve forward. The company's full-year guide calls for 8–10% EBITDA growth and 2–5% inside same-store sales, and the fourth quarter just posted 5.5% inside same-store growth with fuel margin near $0.47 a gallon — a strong exit that raises the bar here. Options are pricing a 9.0% move into the September 18 expiry against an average realized move of just 1.1% over the last eight prints, an unusually rich premium given the stock has beaten all eight of those quarters (last surprise +32.1%) without historically moving much on the news — more a sign the market is bracing for how management frames the durability of the new growth plan than for the number itself. Sell-side price targets have been trimmed into the print even as the rating mix stays bullish, leaving little room in the current multiple for anything short of a clean beat-and-raise.

Prev Q EPS = last reported quarterly EPS; EPS and Rev. vs prev.Q = consensus against the last reported quarter, as a percentage difference (positive = sequential growth expected); a note under a figure flags an unusual comparison base — the percentage is correct but should not be read as a clean growth rate. Implied move = ATM straddle at the first expiry after the report; Hist. avg = mean absolute 1-day move over the last up-to-8 prints (red implied move = priced above history/rich, green = below/cheap). EPS 1Y/3Y/5Y/10Y = annualized EPS growth (CAGR) over the trailing fiscal years; “—” where annual history is too short or crosses a loss.
CompanyTimeCons. EPSEPS rangePrev Q EPSEPS vs prev.QRev. cons.Rev. vs prev.QImplied moveHist. avgBeat rateEPS 1YEPS 3YEPS 5YEPS 10Y
Casey's CASY
Consumer Staples · $27.98B
After-close$6.82$6.45 – $7.38 · 16 est$4.37+56.0%$5.55B+21.5%9.0%1.1%100%+30.9%+17.7%+17.8%+12.7%

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Monday's edition landed on the Labor Day holiday with no marquee reporters to preview, so there's nothing new to grade this morning — the last scored quarter remains last week's Ciena and Lululemon prints.

No results to score from the prior edition.

Rest of the week

The heavier prints wait for midweek: Kroger and Cooper Companies open Wednesday, then Oracle and Adobe headline a busier Thursday alongside Copart — grocery trade-down dynamics, AI-cloud backlog and AI-software monetization all in play before the week is out.

DayCompanyTimeCons. EPSImplied move
Wednesday Sep 9
Kroger KR
TBD$1.095.6%
Cooper Companies (The) COO
After-close$1.138.3%
Thursday Sep 10
Oracle Corporation ORCL
After-close$1.7811.8%
Adobe Inc. ADBE
After-close$6.208.1%
Copart CPRT
After-close$0.39

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.

← Mon, Sep 7 Wed, Sep 9 →