At a glance: Two S&P 500 names report today — Costco after the close and Darden Restaurants pre-open — with implied moves of 3.4% and 7.7% that say the options market expects a far quieter session from one than the other.
The tape ahead
Costco closes out its fiscal year after the bell, with consensus at $6.53 (range $6.30–$6.71 across 28 estimates) on $94.89B of revenue — both up sharply on a sequential basis (EPS up 32.4% vs prev.Q.; revenue up 34.5% vs prev.Q.), in line with Costco's fourth quarter being its longest and seasonally largest reporting period. Year-on-year growth at the 1-year horizon (+9.9%) is running a step behind the 3/5/10-year trend (+11.5%/+15.1%/+13.0%), a deceleration worth watching rather than a break in the pattern. The quarter carries an unusually loaded setup: the membership-fee increase that took effect in the US and Canada in September 2024 is close to fully lapping, so this could be the last print that gets much of a lift from it, which puts renewal rates (running around 92% in the US/Canada, high-80s worldwide last quarter) back in the spotlight as the read on member loyalty once that tailwind fades. Tariff costs and how much of any government refund gets reinvested versus flows to margin are also in focus, with Kirkland Signature's private-label mix cited as the main lever for offsetting import costs, alongside continued e-commerce strength. Against that backdrop, a 3.4% implied move sits well above the stock's own 1.1% average realized move on prints — a large gap for a name that rarely moves much — and comes after last quarter's rare miss (-0.85% surprise) despite a 75% historical beat rate, so the options market is pricing real two-way risk into an unusually consequential print.
Darden Restaurants reports its fiscal first quarter pre-open, with consensus at $2.05 (range $1.94–$2.16 across 27 estimates) on $3.21B of revenue — both down versus the prior quarter (EPS down 43.9% vs prev.Q.; revenue down 13.8% vs prev.Q.), consistent with Q1's summer months being seasonally the softest of Darden's four quarters against an outsized fiscal Q4. Year-on-year, the 1-year EPS trend (+17.0%) is actually running ahead of the 3-year pace (+9.1%) and roughly in line with the 5/10-year figures (+16.8%/+13.6%). The debate at Darden has narrowed to a split between its two flagship brands: LongHorn Steakhouse has been the standout, with same-restaurant sales modeled in the 6–8% range after beating its own comp estimate by a wide margin last quarter, while Olive Garden estimates cluster at flat to up 2% after missing its comp estimate last quarter — a gap the chain's Never-Ending Pasta Bowl promotion, relaunched in late August, is meant to help close. Full-year guidance reiteration is the base case investors are underwriting; any change to that outlook would move the stock more than the quarter itself. A 7.7% implied move is well above the stock's 4.8% average realized move and comes against a more modest 62% historical beat rate and a thin +0.6% last surprise, so less is priced as a formality here than at Costco. How Olive Garden traffic trends land will also be read across the rest of casual dining as a gauge of how the value-conscious diner is holding up.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS range | Prev Q EPS | EPS vs prev.Q | Rev. cons. | Rev. vs prev.Q | Implied move | Hist. avg | Beat rate | EPS 1Y | EPS 3Y | EPS 5Y | EPS 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Costco COST Consumer Staples · $401.22B | After-close | $6.53 | $6.30 – $6.71 · 28 est | $4.93 | +32.4% | $94.89B | +34.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 75% | +9.9% | +11.5% | +15.1% | +13.0% |
Darden Restaurants DRI Consumer Discretionary · $24.26B | Pre-open | $2.05 | $1.94 – $2.16 · 27 est | $3.66 | -43.9% | $3.21B | -13.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 62% | +17.0% | +9.1% | +16.8% | +13.6% |
Scorecard — reported since we last wrote
Both of yesterday's pre-open reporters beat and both stocks fell — a reminder that a clean beat isn't always enough. Cintas beat on EPS ($1.39 vs. the $1.36 we flagged, a 2.4% surprise) and on revenue (+1.0%), with EPS up 10.3% versus the prior quarter, yet shares were reported lower by roughly 2.5% on the day — a high bar after last quarter's double-digit post-earnings pop, compounded by continued regulatory uncertainty around the pending UniFirst acquisition. Paychex beat by a similar margin on EPS ($1.34 vs. $1.32, +1.6%) and edged past on revenue (+0.3%), with EPS roughly flat sequentially (+1.5%), but shares were reported down about 9.2% — the sharpest reaction of the week — as full-year guidance held unchanged rather than being raised, and continuing Paycor integration costs read as a lack of acceleration rather than confirmation of it.
| Company | Time | EPS actual | EPS surprise | EPS vs prev.Q | Rev. actual | Rev. surprise | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cintas CTAS | Pre-open | $1.39 | +2.4% | +10.3% | $3.01B | +1.0% | -2.5% |
Paychex PAYX | Pre-open | $1.34 | +1.6% | +1.5% | $1.63B | +0.3% | -9.2% |
Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.