The Market Wrap.

At a glance: One S&P 500 name reports today — McCormick, before the open. Nothing to grade from the prior edition; Constellation Brands, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines close out the rest of the week.

The tape ahead

McCormick's headline numbers have been distorted all fiscal year by the consolidation of the McCormick de México joint venture onto the income statement, and today's print is no different: consensus EPS of $0.78 (down 9% vs prev.Q.) sits against consensus revenue of $2.11B (up 9% vs prev.Q.) — a gap that has nothing to do with underlying demand and everything to do with the JV now being fully consolidated rather than booked below the line. The real debate is the organic business inside that headline number: volume has been soft across the Consumer segment, with price increases doing most of the work to keep organic growth positive, and sell-side price targets have come down this month on concern that tariff-driven cost inflation and a cautious read on price elasticity will cap margin recovery even as volumes stabilize. Long-run growth has cooled to match — annualized EPS growth of just +0.2% over the past year and +1.1% over five years, well below the +6.5% 10-year trend — so a Street that is still constructive on McCormick is betting on reacceleration rather than extrapolating the recent run. Gross margin in the last reported quarter expanded 2.4 points to 40.2%, consistent with pricing holding and input-cost relief flowing through; net margin's 46.8-point sequential drop to 7.8% is arithmetic rather than operating deterioration — the prior quarter carried an outsized gain tied to the de México consolidation itself, which is not repeating. McCormick has beaten consensus in 6 of its last 8 quarters, including a 13.8% surprise last time out, with realized one-day moves on print day averaging 4.0%. The nearest options expiry, though, is the October monthly, 11 days out, so today's 4.9% straddle is pricing that whole window rather than the print alone and shouldn't be read as the market's call on event risk specifically.

EPS and Rev. vs prev.Q = consensus against the last reported quarter, as a percentage difference (positive = sequential growth expected); a note under a figure flags an unusual comparison base — the percentage is correct but should not be read as a clean growth rate. GM / NM prev.Q = gross and net margin in the last reported quarter, from that quarter's own income statement, with the move against the quarter before it underneath in percentage points (pp); gross margin is “—” for banks and insurers, which do not report a gross profit. Implied move = ATM straddle at the first expiry on or after the report; where that expiry is more than a week out — a name with no weekly options, most often the monthly — a note under the figure says so, because the straddle then prices those extra weeks and not just the print. Hist. avg = mean absolute 1-day move over the last up-to-8 prints (red implied move = priced above history/rich, green = below/cheap; left uncoloured where the expiry is too far out for that comparison to mean anything). EPS 1Y/3Y/5Y/10Y = annualized EPS growth (CAGR) over the trailing fiscal years; “—” where annual history is too short or crosses a loss.
CompanyTimeCons. EPSEPS rangeEPS vs prev.QRev. cons.Rev. vs prev.QGM / NM prev.QImplied moveHist. avgBeat rateEPS 1YEPS 3YEPS 5YEPS 10Y
McCormick & Company MKC
Consumer Staples · $12.02B
Pre-open$0.78$0.73 – $0.80 · 11 est-9.3%$2.11B+8.8%40.2% / 7.8%
+2.4 / -46.8 pp
4.9%
monthly expiry, 11d out
4.0%75%+0.2%+5.1%+1.1%+6.5%

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Nothing to grade this morning — the prior edition had no names to score.

No results to score from the prior edition.

Rest of the week

The week's remaining reporters are concentrated late: Constellation Brands follows Tuesday after the close carrying the group's most-watched consumer-demand debate, as Modelo and Corona lean on a Hispanic-American consumer base the company itself has flagged as pulling back, compounded by tariffs on imported aluminum cans — consensus EPS of $3.60 is above last quarter's $3.43, but guidance cuts earlier this year have left the Street watching whether the newer growth brands can keep offsetting Modelo softness. PepsiCo reports Thursday pre-open against a soft year-ago comparison, with consensus EPS of $2.32 versus $2.20 last quarter. Delta closes the week Friday pre-open, with consensus EPS of $1.99 against $1.56 last quarter and the week's largest implied move at 6.4%, with the focus on what management says about fourth-quarter capacity and leisure demand now that the post-Labor Day travel lull is underway.

Prev Q EPS = last reported quarterly EPS, for reading consensus against the quarter just gone. Implied move = the move the options market is pricing for the print, from the at-the-money straddle at the first expiry on or after the report date; quoted for the largest names each day, “—” elsewhere. Where that expiry is more than a week out, a note says so — the figure then spans those extra weeks rather than the print alone.
DayCompanyTimeCons. EPSPrev Q EPSImplied move
Tuesday Oct 6
Constellation Brands STZ
After-close$3.60$3.435.5%
Thursday Oct 8
PepsiCo PEP
Pre-open$2.32$2.203.8%
Friday Oct 9
Delta Air Lines DAL
Pre-open$1.99$1.566.4%

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.

← Fri, Oct 2