At a glance: 8 S&P 500 names report today — a third wave of pre-open regional and trust banks (Schwab, BNY Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, PNC and Marsh McLennan), plus Prologis before the open and Interactive Brokers and J.B. Hunt after the close.
Reported EPS for one name in today’s scorecard reflects the earnings calendar’s own headline figure, which may sit on a different basis than the consensus quoted against it; no year-on-year comparison is shown for that name.
The tape ahead
Schwab’s third quarter is a referendum on whether the net-interest-income recovery has become structural now that the client-cash-sorting headwind of the past couple of years has largely run its course: sweep balances have kept growing even as clients reallocate into higher-yielding vehicles, the backdrop for a consensus EPS of $1.66 (up 26.7% YoY) that looks steep mostly because it is measured against a depressed year-ago quarter. Revenue consensus of $7.18B (up 17.1% YoY) leans on both net interest income and continued engagement from active traders. Net margin ran 39.6% last quarter, up 1.4 points. The 4.0% implied move sits well above the stock’s own 2.6% average swing on an 88% beat rate over the last eight prints, most recently by 4.6% — priced for more reaction than history suggests.
Prologis heads into the print on a diverging story: EPS consensus of $0.79 implies a slight 1.2% YoY decline even as revenue consensus of $2.21B implies 7.6% YoY growth, and trailing EPS growth has been negative over both the past one and three years — a gap the market will want explained by embedded rather than reported growth. Leasing activity has stayed strong across recent quarters and occupancy has held near multi-year highs, while the spread between in-place and market rents on expiring leases remains a tailwind management has pointed to for future revenue not yet reflected in the current numbers. Data-center development starts are the swing factor to watch, since that pipeline is now a meaningful capital draw at this size. Margins look stable: gross margin 74.2% (up 0.4 point) and net margin 43.8% (up 1.1 points) last quarter. The 3.3% implied move sits modestly above the stock’s own 3.0% average, on a 75% beat rate and a historically outsized 48.3% surprise last quarter.
BNY’s print turns on whether fee income — the dominant swing factor for a custody bank — keeps compounding on assets-under-custody and assets-under-management growth, offsetting a tougher backdrop for net interest income as short rates have come down. Consensus EPS of $2.26 (up 18.3% YoY) and revenue of $5.56B (up 9.4% YoY) assume that fee momentum continues; a perfect eight-for-eight beat record and a 10.7% surprise last quarter support that assumption but set a high bar. Net margin ran 30.6% last quarter, up 2.0 points — one of the larger margin gains on today’s slate, consistent with the operating-leverage story the stock has traded on. The 4.3% implied move sits well above BNY’s own 3.0% average swing, on trailing EPS growth of 27.6% over one year and 36.7% over three.
U.S. Bancorp’s debate is the regional-banking thesis in miniature: whether loan growth and asset repricing keep offsetting deposit costs, after the bank already lifted its own full-year revenue outlook once this year. Consensus EPS of $1.32 (up 8.2% YoY) and revenue of $8.01B (up 9.2% YoY) build in continued momentum, and a perfect eight-for-eight beat record, most recently by 5.5%, backs that framing, though expense discipline and credit quality remain the standard regional-bank watch items into any print. Net margin ran 28.3% last quarter, up 1.5 points. The 3.2% implied move is rich against the stock’s own 2.1% average swing — roughly 1.5x history, one of the pricier setups on the slate relative to how little USB has actually moved on past prints.
PNC’s quarter is a loan-growth story: management raised its full-year loan-growth outlook earlier this year, and the debate is whether average balances are compounding fast enough to deliver the net-interest-income growth consensus is pricing in. Consensus EPS of $4.89 (up 12.4% YoY) and revenue of $6.59B (up 11.4% YoY) sit among the strongest growth rates on today’s financials slate. Net margin ran 31.7% last quarter, up 3.1 points — the largest margin gain in today’s group — on a perfect eight-for-eight beat record, most recently by 8.0%. The 3.2% implied move is nearly double the stock’s own 1.7% average swing, making PNC one of the richest options setups today relative to its actual history of moving on prints.
Marsh McLennan’s debate is whether organic growth, which has run well into the double digits through the insurance-pricing upcycle, is now resetting as commercial pricing softens — a consensus of 6.5% EPS growth YoY and 4.6% revenue growth YoY would mark a clear step down from that pace, if confirmed. The margin picture already shows some of that pressure: gross margin fell 1.6 points to 44.1% last quarter even as net margin rose 2.0 points to 17.1%, a divergence worth watching for whether it is mix or a one-off. A perfect eight-for-eight beat record is intact, though last quarter’s surprise was a thin 2.3% — the smallest cushion on today’s slate. The 3.3% implied move is close to the stock’s own 3.1% average, among the more fairly priced setups today.
Interactive Brokers carries by far the richest options setup on today’s slate: a 4.9% implied move against a 1.6% average historical swing, roughly 3x — pricing an outsized reaction before the numbers are even known. The debate is whether elevated trading activity and account growth, with daily average revenue trades continuing to run higher year over year, can sustain consensus EPS of $0.67 (up 17.5% YoY) and revenue of $1.86B (up 15.3% YoY) without volatility fading first. Gross margin ran 89.2% last quarter (down 0.5 point) and net margin 10.4% (up 0.3 point). Trailing EPS growth has been remarkably consistent — 28.0% over one year, 33.2% over three, 29.7% over five and 27.5% over ten — a track record that makes today’s implied-move premium hard to square with the beat-rate history (75%, most recently by 8.0%).
J.B. Hunt’s setup is the most fraught on today’s slate: management flagged in September that rising fuel and driver costs were outpacing pricing gains, and the market has priced that uncertainty into a 5.9% implied move — more than 4x the stock’s own 1.4% average historical swing, the richest premium anywhere in today’s group. Consensus EPS of $1.81 (up 2.8% YoY) sits well behind revenue consensus of $3.59B (up 17.7% YoY), a gap consistent with the cost pressure management described. Intermodal pricing, which typically lags truckload pricing by a couple of quarters, is running at an unusually wide discount to truck right now — something management has called an opportunity to close in the coming bid season rather than chase with out-of-cycle hikes. Gross margin ran 12.7% last quarter (flat) and net margin 5.2% (up 0.6 point), on an 88% beat rate and trailing EPS growth that is negative over three years (-12.7%) despite a positive one-year reading of 10.2%.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS range | EPS YoY | Rev. cons. | Rev. YoY | GM / NM prev.Q | Implied move | Hist. avg | Beat rate | EPS 1Y | EPS 3Y | EPS 5Y | EPS 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW Financials · $167.40B | Pre-open | $1.66 | $1.59 – $1.70 · 20 est | +26.7% | $7.18B | +17.1% | — / 39.6% — / +1.4 pp | 4.0% | 2.6% | 88% | +51.0% | +10.1% | +16.3% | +16.2% |
Prologis PLD Real Estate · $123.98B | Pre-open | $0.79 | $0.75 – $0.83 · 2 est | -1.2% | $2.21B | +7.6% | 74.2% / 43.8% +0.4 / +1.1 pp | 3.3% | 3.0% | 75% | -11.1% | -5.7% | +12.1% | +7.9% |
BNY Mellon BNY Financials · $93.39B | Pre-open | $2.26 | $2.16 – $2.33 · 12 est | +18.3% | $5.56B | +9.4% | — / 30.6% — / +2.0 pp | 4.3% | 3.0% | 100% | +27.6% | +36.7% | — | — |
U.S. Bancorp USB Financials · $87.66B | Pre-open | $1.32 | $1.24 – $1.38 · 19 est | +8.2% | $8.01B | +9.2% | — / 28.3% — / +1.5 pp | 3.2% | 2.1% | 100% | +21.9% | +7.8% | — | — |
PNC Financial Services PNC Financials · $86.10B | Pre-open | $4.89 | $4.77 – $5.07 · 16 est | +12.4% | $6.59B | +11.4% | — / 31.7% — / +3.1 pp | 3.2% | 1.7% | 100% | +20.7% | +6.2% | — | — |
Marsh McLennan MRSH Financials · $85.13B | Pre-open | $1.97 | $1.92 – $2.00 · 22 est | +6.5% | $6.64B | +4.6% | 44.1% / 17.1% -1.6 / +2.0 pp | 3.3% | 3.1% | 100% | +2.9% | +11.7% | +16.4% | +10.9% |
Interactive Brokers IBKR Financials · $38.12B | After-close | $0.67 | $0.63 – $0.70 · 13 est | +17.5% | $1.86B | +15.3% | 89.2% / 10.4% -0.5 / +0.3 pp | 4.9% | 1.6% | 75% | +28.0% | +33.2% | +29.7% | +27.5% |
J.B. Hunt JBHT Industrials · $21.80B | After-close | $1.81 | $1.75 – $1.96 · 21 est | +2.8% | $3.59B | +17.7% | 12.7% / 5.2% +0.0 / +0.6 pp | 5.9% | 1.4% | 88% | +10.2% | -12.7% | +5.3% | +5.3% |
Scorecard — reported since we last wrote
Five more financials and industrials scored since yesterday’s wrap, and Bank of America’s miss confirmed the guidance risk flagged in that edition: EPS fell short of consensus by 17.3% (and 14.2% YoY) and revenue missed too, with the stock down 4.8% on the session — the worst reaction in today’s group. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock both beat on both lines (MS by 3.8% EPS / 1.1% revenue, BLK by 11.4% EPS / 4.4% revenue) and still traded down — MS fell 2.75%, a beat the tape evidently did not reward — while Fastenal’s smaller beat (2.9% EPS, 0.9% revenue; no YoY comparison shown, per the note above) lifted the stock 1.1%. State Street came in line on EPS (+0.3%, inside the in-line band) but missed on revenue (-0.9%), and fell 4.1% — the sharpest reaction relative to the size of its headline surprise.
| Company | Time | EPS actual | EPS surprise | EPS YoY | Rev. actual | Rev. surprise | GM / NM | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bank of America BAC | Pre-open | $0.91 | -17.3% | -14.2% | $30.12B | -1.4% | — | -4.8% |
Morgan Stanley MS | Pre-open | $3.03 | +3.8% | +8.2% | $20.34B | +1.1% | — | -2.8% |
BlackRock BLK | Pre-open | $15.93 | +11.4% | +37.9% | $7.75B | +4.4% | — | +0.7% |
Fastenal FAST | Pre-open | $0.35 | +2.9% | — | $2.46B | +0.9% | — | +1.1% |
State Street Corporation STT | Pre-open | $3.69 | +0.3% | +32.7% | $4.00B | -0.9% | — | -4.1% |
Rest of the week
Friday closes the week with five more financials, mostly regional banks and one property-casualty insurer: Travelers (consensus implies an 8.7% YoY decline, implied move 4.1%), Truist (up 16.3% YoY, implied move 3.5%), M&T Bank (up 2.3% YoY), Citizens Financial (up 32.4% YoY) and Regions Financial (up 4.8% YoY).
| Day | Company | Time | Cons. EPS | Yr-ago EPS | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday Oct 16 | Travelers Companies (The) TRV | Pre-open | $7.43 | $8.14 | 4.1% |
Truist Financial TFC | Pre-open | $1.21 | $1.04 | 3.5% | |
M&T Bank MTB | Pre-open | $4.93 | $4.82 | — | |
Citizens Financial Group CFG | Pre-open | $1.39 | $1.05 | — | |
Regions Financial Corporation RF | Pre-open | $0.66 | $0.63 | — |
Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.