At a glance: 8 S&P 500 names report today — Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Valero Energy, General Dynamics and Blackstone before the open, Western Digital and Newmont after the close.
The earnings calendar carries no confirmed session for Dexcom today; the date is provisional and the company may report later in the period.
The tape ahead
Procter & Gamble’s print lands just after the company reset expectations for fiscal 2027, guiding to a muted 1–3% organic-sales growth range and flagging roughly $1 billion in after-tax drag from higher raw-material, energy, transportation and tariff-related costs — management itself has pointed to at least a 5% first-quarter EPS decline from that cost bill, which lines up almost exactly with consensus EPS of $1.89 (down 5.0% YoY) against revenue of $22.82B (up 2.0% YoY). That split, modest top-line growth against a bottom-line decline, is a pricing-and-input-cost story rather than a demand problem, and it shows up directly in the margin trend: gross margin fell 1.0 point to 48.5% and net margin fell a sharper 4.2 points to 14.4% last quarter. The beat record is unblemished across the last eight prints (100%, most recently by 1.55%), and the 3.0% implied move sits well above P&G’s own 1.8% average swing — a rich setup for a name whose growth has been decelerating across every trailing window (CAGR of 1.8% over one year against 6.0% over ten). Read-across extends to the rest of household-products group reporting this season on the same input-cost and pricing dynamic.
Union Pacific reports into a demand backdrop that looks nothing like last year’s: consensus EPS of $3.48 (up 13.0% YoY) and revenue of $7.13B (up 14.2% YoY) point to a sharp re-acceleration, with intermodal volume and freight pricing both running at record levels in recent quarters even as fuel-cost volatility has pressured the operating ratio. The pending, roughly $72–85 billion merger with Norfolk Southern remains a live overhang on sentiment rather than today’s numbers — the Surface Transportation Board is still working through a revised application, with a 2027 close now the working timeline — but it keeps the name in headlines regardless of what prints. Gross margin rose slightly to 45.5% (up 0.1 point) and net margin rose 1.7 points to 29.0% last quarter, consistent with pricing power holding even as fuel costs swing. The 3.8% implied move sits just below Union Pacific’s own 4.0% average swing, a fair-to-cheap setup given a 62% beat rate and a 5.16% beat last quarter. Read-across extends to Norfolk Southern and CSX (the latter already scored this week with a beat) and to how the market is pricing the merger-review timeline into rail valuations generally.
Western Digital’s quarter is the clearest AI-storage read on today’s slate: cloud revenue, now roughly 89% of the mix, has been growing on hyperscaler demand for nearline capacity drives as AI workloads shift from model training toward inference and data retention, and blended price per terabyte has been climbing at a high-teens pace. Consensus EPS of $4.10 (up 130.3% YoY) and revenue of $4.15B (up 47.1% YoY) look extraordinary, but the EPS comparison carries a low year-ago base flag — last year’s fiscal quarter fell during the trough in storage pricing before this AI-driven demand wave took hold, so the headline growth rate overstates the run-rate even though the underlying business has genuinely re-rated (five- and ten-year EPS CAGRs of 56.1% and 37.8% confirm this isn’t just a one-quarter base effect). Gross margin rose 3.9 points to 54.1% last quarter, consistent with the pricing and mix tailwind, while net margin — at an extraordinary 81.9%, down 14.1 points on an already elevated base — reflects one-off items rather than core operating economics. The 8.2% implied move is priced nearly 3x Western Digital’s own 2.9% average swing, one of the richest setups on today’s calendar, against an 88% beat rate and a 7.87% beat last quarter. Read-across extends to Seagate and to the broader AI-storage capacity build-out that hyperscalers and enterprise buyers are both leaning into.
Lockheed Martin’s quarter tests whether a record backlog (above $190 billion entering this year) keeps translating into clean execution after a stretch of classified-program and helicopter-program charges weighed on several recent quarters, including the year-ago period this print is measured against. Consensus EPS of $7.52 (up 8.2% YoY) and revenue of $20.46B (up 10.0% YoY) imply steady, broad-based growth rather than a snap-back from any single charge. Margins ticked up modestly — gross margin rose 0.7 point to 12.2% and net margin rose 0.9 point to 9.2% last quarter — typical of the thin, cost-plus economics in defense primes. The 4.4% implied move sits below Lockheed’s own 6.2% average swing, a relatively cheap setup given the tail risk from further classified-program charges, against a 62% beat rate and a 10.39% beat last quarter; trailing EPS growth stays negative across the one-, three- and five-year windows (down 3.7%, 0.3% and 2.4% annualized) even as the ten-year figure is positive (up 6.5%), a legacy of those charges rather than a change in the franchise. Read-across extends to RTX, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman on the broader defense-backlog and budget theme already in play this week.
Valero’s quarter is a refining-margin story: crack spreads have widened sharply this quarter on supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions and tight product inventories, a sharp reversal from a year ago when margins had compressed toward multi-year lows. Consensus EPS of $21.18 carries a low year-ago base flag (up 478.7% YoY) against revenue of $41.74B (up 29.8% YoY) — the scale of the EPS move says more about how depressed last year’s refining margins were than about a new earnings level, though the revenue growth confirms genuine strength in product pricing and volumes this quarter. Margins moved sharply in the same direction last quarter — gross margin up 6.0 points to 12.3% and net margin up 4.5 points to 8.4% — consistent with the crack-spread tailwind. The 4.5% implied move sits above Valero’s own 2.7% average swing, in line with a 100% beat rate and an outsized 23.84% beat last quarter; trailing EPS growth stays negative over the one- and three-year windows (down 11.7% and 36.1% annualized), a reminder that refining margins are cyclical rather than secularly expanding. Read-across extends to Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66, both expected to show the same crack-spread tailwind this earnings season.
Newmont’s quarter is a direct read on this year’s gold rally: prices have held well above year-ago levels even after pulling back from an earlier peak, lifting realized prices and consensus revenue of $6.24B (up 13.0% YoY) alongside EPS of $1.94 (up 13.5% YoY), even as management has guided to higher all-in sustaining costs and softer output than in the first half of the year. That cost pressure shows up in the margin trend — gross margin fell 8.8 points to 56.0% and net margin fell 8.7 points to 36.0% last quarter — a reminder that even with gold near record levels, cost inflation is eating into the leverage. The 4.75% implied move is priced at roughly 3.7x Newmont’s own 1.3% average swing, one of the richer setups on today’s slate, against an 88% beat rate and a 5.68% beat last quarter; one-year EPS growth of 119.3% reflects the gold-price surge directly, while the five- and ten-year CAGRs (12.7% and 31.1%) show the longer-run trend has also been strongly positive. Read-across extends to the rest of the gold-mining group and to gold’s role as a macro hedge more broadly.
General Dynamics offers a steadier, more diversified defense read than today’s other primes: Gulfstream aerospace deliveries — including the new flagship G700 — and Marine Systems’ submarine-production work are the two swing factors, with a large multi-year backlog underpinning visibility regardless of near-term demand swings. Consensus EPS of $4.13 (up 6.4% YoY) and revenue of $13.73B (up 6.3% YoY) point to continued, unspectacular growth. Margins were roughly flat to modestly lower last quarter — gross margin down 0.4 point to 15.5% and net margin down 0.1 point to 8.2%. The 1.4% implied move is the smallest on today’s calendar, well below General Dynamics’ own 3.9% average swing, a notably muted setup against an 88% beat rate and a 6.86% beat last quarter; trailing EPS growth has stayed consistently positive across every window (13.4% over one year through 5.2% over ten), one of the steadier growth profiles in the group. Read-across extends to Lockheed and RTX on defense demand, and to Textron and other business-jet makers on Gulfstream’s order cadence.
Blackstone is the one marquee name today where consensus points to an outright year-on-year decline: EPS of $1.26 (down 17.1% YoY) and revenue of $3.21B (down 2.9% YoY), with real estate still the drag — aggregate private real-estate values remain below where they stood when the rate-hiking cycle began, even as management has pointed to rate cuts and a lack of new construction as the eventual catalyst for a recovery it has called a matter of timing rather than direction. Fundraising has kept moving even as realizations lag: the firm's latest flagship real-estate vehicle has already drawn more than $30 billion in commitments. Net margin rose 7.7 points to 29.4% last quarter (gross margin isn’t a meaningful metric for an asset manager) — an improvement that sits awkwardly next to the YoY decline consensus is modeling, and worth watching for commentary on fee-related versus performance-fee earnings. The 4.1% implied move sits above Blackstone’s own 3.2% average swing, against a perfect 100% beat rate and a 13.71% beat last quarter; trailing EPS growth stays firmly positive across every window (6.9% to 20.9%), underscoring that this quarter’s expected dip is more about realization timing than the underlying franchise. Read-across extends to Apollo, KKR and Ares on fundraising and realization trends across the alternative-asset group.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS range | EPS YoY | Rev. cons. | Rev. YoY | GM / NM prev.Q | Implied move | Hist. avg | Beat rate | EPS 1Y | EPS 3Y | EPS 5Y | EPS 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Procter & Gamble PG Consumer Staples · $364.29B | Pre-open | $1.89 | $1.85 – $2.00 · 19 est | -5.0% | $22.82B | +2.0% | 48.5% / 14.4% -1.0 / -4.2 pp | 3.0% | 1.8% | 100% | +1.8% | +3.9% | +3.8% | +6.0% |
Union Pacific Corporation UNP Industrials · $171.02B | Pre-open | $3.48 | $3.29 – $3.59 · 21 est | +13.0% | $7.13B | +14.2% | 45.5% / 29.0% +0.1 / +1.7 pp | 3.8% | 4.0% | 62% | +8.0% | +2.2% | +8.7% | +8.1% |
Western Digital WDC Information Technology · $141.69B | After-close | $4.10 | $4.00 – $4.40 · 20 est | +130.3% low year-ago base | $4.15B | +47.1% | 54.1% / 81.9% +3.9 / -14.1 pp | 8.2% | 2.9% | 88% | +367.6% | — | +56.1% | +37.8% |
Lockheed Martin LMT Industrials · $127.28B | Pre-open | $7.52 | $7.12 – $7.87 · 16 est | +8.2% | $20.46B | +10.0% | 12.2% / 9.2% +0.7 / +0.9 pp | 4.4% | 6.2% | 62% | -3.7% | -0.3% | -2.4% | +6.5% |
Valero Energy VLO Energy · $125.75B | Pre-open | $21.18 | $13.56 – $24.30 · 17 est | +478.7% low year-ago base | $41.74B | +29.8% | 12.3% / 8.4% +6.0 / +4.5 pp | 4.5% | 2.7% | 100% | -11.7% | -36.1% | — | -0.5% |
Newmont NEM Materials · $123.47B | After-close | $1.94 | $1.78 – $2.19 · 11 est | +13.5% | $6.24B | +13.0% | 56.0% / 36.0% -8.8 / -8.7 pp | 4.8% | 1.3% | 88% | +119.3% | — | +12.7% | +31.1% |
General Dynamics GD Industrials · $93.26B | Pre-open | $4.13 | $4.00 – $4.26 · 17 est | +6.4% | $13.73B | +6.3% | 15.5% / 8.2% -0.4 / -0.1 pp | 1.4% | 3.9% | 88% | +13.4% | +8.2% | +7.0% | +5.2% |
Blackstone Inc. BX Financials · $82.25B | Pre-open | $1.26 | $1.14 – $1.33 · 19 est | -17.1% | $3.21B | -2.9% | — / 29.4% — / +7.7 pp | 4.1% | 3.2% | 100% | +6.9% | +17.9% | +20.9% | +20.5% |
Also reporting today
Twenty-two more S&P 500 names round out the day, led by Comcast and Norfolk Southern before the open and Bloom Energy and Omnicom after the close. Honeywell's consensus implies today's steepest year-on-year EPS decline on the slate, and Dexcom's own session remains unconfirmed on the calendar.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS YoY | Rev. cons. | Rev. YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Comcast CMCSA Communication Services | Pre-open | $0.99 | -11.6% | $29.22B | -6.3% |
Norfolk Southern NSC Industrials | Pre-open | $3.47 | +5.2% | $3.48B | +12.1% |
Bloom Energy BE Industrials | After-close | $0.67 | +346.7% low year-ago base | $1.07B | +106.5% low year-ago base |
Honeywell Technologies HON Industrials | Pre-open | $2.16 | -61.7% | $5.01B | -51.9% |
Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ Financials | Pre-open | $1.02 | +15.9% | $1.46B | +11.2% |
Comfort Systems USA FIX Industrials | After-close | $12.85 | +55.8% | $3.40B | +38.8% |
PG&E Corporation PCG Utilities | Pre-open | $0.42 | -16.0% | $6.82B | +9.2% |
Roper Technologies ROP Information Technology | Pre-open | $5.79 | +12.6% | $2.17B | +7.7% |
CBRE Group CBRE Real Estate | Pre-open | $1.95 | +21.1% | $11.90B | +16.0% |
Huntington Bancshares HBAN Financials | Pre-open | $0.38 | -5.0% | $2.83B | +31.6% |
Dexcom DXCM Health Care | Unconfirmed | $0.67 | +9.8% | $1.33B | +9.7% |
Verisign VRSN Information Technology | After-close | $2.42 | +6.6% | $440.5M | +5.1% |
| Also: DOV, DGX, OMC, DOW, PHM, SNA, TSCO, NVR, ALLE, DECK | |||||
Scorecard — reported since we last wrote
Twenty-five names have scored since we last wrote, and the pattern was again more about reaction than headline surprise. Elevance Health’s 49.0% EPS beat was the largest in the batch, yet the stock still slipped 1.4% — the clearest case of a beat the tape didn’t reward. Rollins came in exactly in line on EPS and still fell 7.5% after hours, the sharpest reaction-to-surprise mismatch of the group. AT&T and IBM both beat on EPS and revenue and were sold anyway (down 6.45% and 4.65% after hours, respectively); Lam Research was in line on EPS despite a revenue beat and fell harder still, down 7.41% after hours. NextEra beat on EPS but missed on revenue, and Wabtec’s EPS beat came with a revenue miss too; both finished close to flat (down 0.7% and up 2.0%, respectively), muting what either surprise might suggest. Meta missed consensus by a wide 29.9% even as revenue came in in line, yet still added 1.6% after the close; the headline +264.8% YoY swing is a function of the one-off, non-cash tax charge that depressed last year’s print, not a read on this quarter’s (missed) number. Southwest’s reported EPS came in 500% above the year-ago quarter, but that base was itself depressed by rising non-fuel costs and a sharp drop in interest income in last year’s print, not a clean read on the current trajectory. Margin detail from the quarter just reported isn’t out yet for any of these twenty-five names.
| Company | Time | EPS actual | EPS surprise | EPS YoY | Rev. actual | Rev. surprise | GM / NM | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meta Platforms META | After-close | $3.83 | -29.9% | +264.8% low year-ago base | $63.06B | -0.5% | — | +1.6% AH |
Tesla, Inc. TSLA | After-close | $0.48 | +6.7% | -4.0% | $28.05B | -0.7% | — | -3.3% AH |
Lam Research LRCX | After-close | $2.20 | +0.9% | +74.6% | $8.22B | +0.9% | — | -7.4% AH |
Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO | Pre-open | $6.68 | +4.4% | +15.4% | $12.14B | +1.6% | — | +1.0% |
Texas Instruments TXN | After-close | $2.62 | +7.8% | +77.0% | $6.05B | +2.1% | — | +1.3% AH |
IBM IBM | After-close | $2.95 | +2.8% | +11.3% | $17.10B | +1.5% | — | -4.7% AH |
Abbott Laboratories ABT | Pre-open | $1.42 | +0.7% | +9.2% | $13.01B | +0.2% | — | -1.9% |
NextEra Energy NEE | Pre-open | $1.24 | +4.2% | +9.7% | $8.09B | -6.7% | — | -0.7% |
AT&T T | Pre-open | $0.65 | +8.3% | +20.4% | $32.32B | +2.1% | — | -6.5% |
Danaher Corporation DHR | Pre-open | $2.11 | +9.9% | +11.6% | $6.55B | -0.1% | — | +4.3% |
CME Group CME | Pre-open | $3.02 | +1.0% | +12.7% | $1.74B | +1.2% | — | +0.2% |
Elevance Health ELV | Pre-open | $6.99 | +49.0% | +15.9% | $50.44B | +2.6% | — | -1.4% |
CSX Corporation CSX | After-close | $0.57 | +7.5% | +54.1% | $4.02B | +1.4% | — | +3.7% AH |
Moody's Corporation MCO | Pre-open | $4.14 | -2.6% | +5.6% | $2.02B | -2.6% | — | +1.2% |
Kinder Morgan KMI | After-close | $0.35 | +6.1% | +20.7% | $4.53B | +3.4% | — | +2.2% AH |
United Rentals URI | After-close | $15.55 | +10.8% | +32.9% | $4.89B | +3.9% | — | -0.2% AH |
Wabtec WAB | Pre-open | $2.83 | +3.7% | +22.0% | $3.12B | -2.5% | — | +1.9% |
Crown Castle CCI | After-close | $0.67 | -2.9% | +4.7% | $995.0M | -1.7% | — | -0.2% AH |
| Also reported (4 of 7 above consensus): NTRS, TDY, LVS, PKG, LUV, ROL, GL | ||||||||
Rest of the week
Friday closes out the week quietly with just two more S&P 500 names: American Express and Schlumberger, both before the open, with implied moves of 4.06% and 4.27% respectively.
| Day | Company | Time | Cons. EPS | Yr-ago EPS | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday Oct 23 | American Express AXP | Pre-open | $4.50 | $4.14 | 4.1% |
Schlumberger SLB | Pre-open | $0.61 | $0.69 | 4.3% |
Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.