At a glance: 1 S&P 500 name reports today — TransDigm Group, before the open.
The tape ahead
TransDigm reports before the open, closing out its fiscal fourth quarter after a year in which management raised full-year guidance more than once. Consensus EPS of $12.21 implies growth of 12.8% YoY, with revenue consensus of $2.95B implying a faster 20.9% YoY gain — revenue outrunning EPS, consistent with recent bolt-on acquisitions adding to the top line while diluting margin; net margin was already down 1.4 points in the last reported quarter even as gross margin held flat. Commercial OEM has been the stronger of the company's two legs this year, tracking higher Boeing and Airbus build rates, while commercial aftermarket growth has decelerated from its earlier pace to a more modest full-year guide — making the aftermarket trajectory, not the print itself, the more likely thing to move the stock on the call. An 88% beat rate and a 5.71% average surprise argue the print clears consensus; the open question is the tone of guidance for the year ahead. The nearest expiry is the November monthly, so the 8.76% implied move spans 10 days rather than the print alone — TransDigm's own 5.08% realized-move average is the more relevant guide to today's reaction. Trailing EPS growth has been strong and remarkably consistent across every horizon (20.2% over one year, 33.8% over three, 23.9% over five, 16.3% over ten), a track record that raises the bar on what counts as “in line” today.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS range | EPS YoY | Rev. cons. | Rev. YoY | GM / NM prev.Q | Implied move | Hist. avg | Beat rate | EPS 1Y | EPS 3Y | EPS 5Y | EPS 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TransDigm Group TDG Industrials · $67.37B | Pre-open | $12.21 | $11.81 – $12.58 · 20 est | +12.8% | $2.95B | +20.9% | 59.4% / 19.7% +0.0 / -1.4 pp | 8.8% monthly expiry, 10d out | 5.1% | 88% | +20.2% | +33.8% | +23.9% | +16.3% |
Scorecard — reported since we last wrote
Seven names from the last edition reported since, all clearing consensus on EPS — but the revenue line split three ways, and more than one reaction didn’t line up neatly with the surprise.
Constellation Energy beat on both lines — EPS of $5.06 against a $3.89 consensus, revenue 2.1% above estimate — and reported EPS grew 66.4% YoY. Shares added 10.46% on the print, the cleaner read-through of the morning's data-center power story.
KKR beat EPS by 12.7% ($1.78 vs. $1.58), with reported EPS up 26.2% YoY, but revenue missed by 28.3% — a split the market mostly shrugged off, with shares up just 1.67%.
Occidental beat EPS by 29.9% ($1.91 vs. $1.47 consensus), and the 198.4% YoY jump is flattered by a low year-ago base rather than a step-change in the business — that quarter sat on weak realized crude pricing and the heavier interest load from the CrownRock acquisition. Revenue missed by 1.7% and the stock barely moved, up just 0.11% after the close — a muted reaction to a headline number that overstates the underlying improvement.
Ferguson beat on both lines — EPS $3.43 against $3.29, revenue 3.9% above estimate — with no year-ago comparison available this quarter. Shares jumped 11.22%, the sharpest reaction of the morning.
Skydance's EPS beat decisively (a 125% surprise, $0.45 vs. a $0.20 consensus) against a year-ago loss that leaves no clean YoY read, while revenue came in in line at -0.26%. Shares still fell 2.52% after the close — an EPS beat the tape didn't reward.
Take-Two's loss narrowed to $0.29 a share against a consensus $0.86 loss (both lapping a year-ago loss, so no YoY read applies), while revenue missed by 3.3%. Shares still rose 3.0% after the close — likely more about GTA VI launch commentary than the quarter's own numbers.
NRG beat on both lines — EPS $4.68 against $3.03, revenue 1.9% above estimate — with reported EPS up 68.3% YoY. Shares added 10.32%, matching Constellation's move on the same data-center power narrative.
| Company | Time | EPS actual | EPS surprise | EPS YoY | Rev. actual | Rev. surprise | GM / NM | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Constellation Energy CEG | Pre-open | $5.06 | +30.1% | +66.4% | $9.55B | +2.1% | — | +10.5% |
KKR & Co. KKR | Pre-open | $1.78 | +12.7% | +26.2% | $1.86B | -28.3% | — | +1.7% |
Occidental Petroleum OXY | After-close | $1.91 | +29.9% | +198.4% low year-ago base | $6.77B | -1.7% | — | +0.1% AH |
Ferguson Enterprises FERG | Pre-open | $3.43 | +4.3% | — | $9.03B | +3.9% | — | +11.2% |
Skydance SKYD | After-close | $0.45 | +125.0% | — | $7.03B | -0.3% | — | -2.5% AH |
Take-Two Interactive TTWO | After-close | $-0.29 | +66.3% | — | $1.60B | -3.3% | — | +3.0% AH |
NRG Energy NRG | Pre-open | $4.68 | +54.5% | +68.3% | $9.47B | +1.9% | — | +10.3% |
Rest of the week
Thursday is the week's heaviest day left, with Cisco and Applied Materials both reporting after the close. Cisco's $1.32 consensus implies 32.0% YoY growth against a 9.0% implied move that sits inside the week, pricing the print itself; Applied Materials' $4.06 consensus implies a sharp 87.1% YoY gain against an even larger 8.8% implied move, also inside the week.
| Day | Company | Time | Cons. EPS | Yr-ago EPS | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday Nov 12 | Cisco CSCO | After-close | $1.32 | $1.00 | 9.0% |
Applied Materials AMAT | After-close | $4.06 | $2.17 | 8.8% |
Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.