Gold & Precious Metals Corner

Friday, 2026-09-11 · covering the last 24h

Market signal

A hot core CPI print does the opposite of what the textbook says: gold and silver both whipsaw higher. August headline CPI came in as expected at 0.4% on the month (3.4% year-on-year, with gasoline up 3.9% and energy up 16.3% y/y on Middle East-driven crude), but core CPI ran a tenth hot at 0.3% — enough to push September Fed-hike odds to roughly 90% on the CME FedWatch tool, up from about 70% after Thursday's PPI shock and 60% before that. Textbook logic says a higher-odds hike is a headwind for non-yielding gold; instead both metals, which had opened near one-month lows and with silver briefly negative ahead of the release, reversed hard: gold ran about 1.7% to the mid-$4,380s and silver rallied over 2% to around $65, erasing the prior session's losses in one move. Platinum firmed modestly to the $1,790–1,810 range. Kitco · USAGOLD · GoldSilver.com

Upstream — miners, streamers & supply

No material new miner, streamer or supply news in the window. The Sibanye-Stillwater USW strike at Stillwater East and Columbus, Montana (covered September 7–10) remains unresolved into its second week, with no talks reported between the company and the roughly 420 affected workers.

Physical & official flows — central banks, ETFs & bullion

No new official-sector or ETF-flow data in the window; Thursday's record World Gold Council figures (121 tonnes and $18bn added to global gold ETFs in August, holdings at an all-time-high 4,189 tonnes) stand unchanged.

Silver & PGMs — the industrial complex

No new industrial-complex data in the window; today's platinum move was a price-driven follow of the broader CPI whipsaw (see Market signal) rather than a fresh fundamental development.

The Chatter

Vince Lanci — GoldFix (Substack), relaying Société Générale: Lanci surfaces SG's Conviction Thinking note arguing gold's recovery from July's dip below $4,000 is gathering real strength — renewed Chinese central-bank dip-buying, improving Western investment demand and a continuing shift away from dollar reserves are, in the bank's reading, rebuilding the structural case for higher prices, part of a post-2022 regime shift where central-bank accumulation and de-dollarisation put a higher floor under the metal than pre-2022 cycles. Post

Peter Schiff (SchiffGold commentary): Reacting to today's CPI print, Schiff argues the market's old reflex — sell gold on hot inflation because it means higher rates — is breaking down, and that the Fed's failure to actually tame inflation matters more than any single hike: in his framing, falling real rates alongside persistent price pressure is what's now driving gold up on bad inflation news rather than down. Post