Gold & Precious Metals Corner

Friday, 2026-09-25 · covering the last 24h

Market signal

A Hormuz-driven morning bounce gets erased by an inflation-expectations spike, leaving gold and silver on track for a weekly loss. Spot gold opened Friday firmer near $4,300 (up about 0.6%) and silver jumped to roughly $64.75 (up 1.6%) as renewed U.S.-Iran truce hopes eased Strait of Hormuz supply fears and pulled oil lower. That reprieve didn't last: the University of Michigan's final September consumer-sentiment read came in at 48.1 — better than forecast but still a four-month low — paired with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest since June, and gold slid to a session low near $4,254–4,265 before recovering into the $4,284–4,300 range by the New York close. Fed October-hike odds held near 70–71%, the dollar index sat close to a two-month high around 101.2, and the 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated near 5.0–5.1%. Platinum firmed to around $1,790 and palladium to about $1,290, both little changed on the week; GDX was roughly flat (down about 0.5% to $91.90), tracking bullion rather than any fresh company news. Silver remains up about 59% and gold about 25% over the past twelve months despite the September pullback. Kitco AM Report · Kitco News · Yahoo Finance

Upstream — miners, streamers & supply

Barrick's flagship Mali gold complex faces coordinated strike notices from next Monday. Unions at Loulo-Gounkoto's operating units — SOMILO SA (Loulo) and GOUNKOTO SA (Gounkoto) — plus Barrick's catering and support contractor Food & Events Africa have filed formal strike notices over unresolved demands on overtime pay, mission-expense reimbursement and implementation of labour agreements first submitted in February. SOMILO and GOUNKOTO workers have called four-day strikes from 28 September to 1 October and FEA workers a five-day strike from 28 September to 2 October, putting output at one of Mali's largest gold operations — and a live test of West African labour and resource-nationalism risk — at stake. Mining.com (Reuters) · Globe and Mail (paywall)

No other company-specific upstream news broke in the window. The Sibanye-Stillwater PGM strike at its Montana operations is now past three weeks with still no talks reported, and Kinross's cut to 2026–27 guidance, both already covered, stand unchanged.

Physical & official flows — central banks, ETFs & bullion

No new central-bank purchase disclosures or weekly GLD/SLV flow prints landed in the window; those update on their usual monthly and weekly cadence. Silver's COMEX story stayed under the surface rather than making fresh headlines — registered warehouse stock has drifted roughly 2.6% lower over the past month, and the October contract still has a few thousand lots open heading into first notice day early next week — but Wednesday's widened COMEX-London EFP spread has not escalated into a new lease-rate print, so it remains a slow-burn signal rather than confirmed stress. The Vault Report (COMEX data)

Silver & PGMs — the industrial complex

No new industrial-demand, recycling or autocatalyst data broke in the window. Platinum and palladium moved with the broader dollar- and yield-driven complex on Friday (see Market signal) rather than on any new fundamental input; the WPIC's revision to a 2026 platinum surplus and the Silver Institute's widened sixth-consecutive-deficit forecast, both already reported, remain the operative reference points.

The Chatter

Vince Lanci — GoldFix (Substack): In "Founders AM: Copper, Silver, PGMs: Tariff Risk Builds Inventories," Lanci amplifies a Goldman Sachs note arguing that U.S. tariff fears are already pulling copper, silver and PGMs out of overseas markets and into American warehouses ahead of any formal decision — thinning the metal available abroad and setting up sharper price moves in those metals if investor demand returns. Post

The Silver Engineer (FXStreet): In "Silver holders can lose the solar growth story and keep the shortfall," the author argues that even as solar manufacturers cut silver loadings per panel by roughly a fifth to a third this year, rising installation volumes mean the 2026 supply deficit narrows but does not close — so silver's structural shortfall case survives even if the "explosive solar growth" narrative much of the bull case leaned on has weakened. Post