Earnings Chatter

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

At a glance: 54 S&P 500 names report today — Procter & Gamble and Amphenol print before the bell, while Microsoft and Meta headline an after-the-close slate that also includes Lam Research, Qualcomm, Starbucks and Fortinet.

The tape ahead

Microsoft (MSFT), after the close. Consensus EPS of $4.24 is essentially flat versus last quarter's $4.27 (99% of it) — an unusual pause for a name whose trailing growth has run well into the double digits (1/3/5/10y EPS CAGR of +15.6%/+12.2%/+18.8%/+24.9%). The debate is less about this quarter, where management guided Azure to 39–40% constant-currency growth and a record single-quarter capex north of $40B, and more about the FY2027 Q1 guide investors will use as the real tell on whether the AI buildout is translating into durable returns; Copilot seat/usage growth is the secondary proof point after 20M paid M365 Copilot seats last quarter. The 7.23% implied move towers over the 0.50% average realized move on the last eight prints (a 100% beat rate, +4.9% last surprise) — among the richest implied-vs-realized gaps of today's slate, reflecting real anxiety over capex payback. Read-across: Alphabet's July 22 report raised 2026 capex guidance to $195–205B and still sold off, the template the market is now applying here and to Meta, which reports the same evening; Nvidia, AMD and Vertiv are the supply-chain names most tied to Azure capex commentary. GuruFocus

Meta Platforms (META), after the close. Consensus EPS of $7.22 looks like a sharp 69% sequential step-down from last quarter's $10.44, but that's largely mechanical, not operational: Q1's reported figure was inflated by a one-time ~$8B tax benefit tied to Corporate AMT transitional relief, so this quarter's number is closer to a clean read, layered against a heavier capex cadence and rising AI-talent comp costs. The debate is whether ad-revenue growth can keep funding the buildout — Q2 capex and any revision to the $125–145B full-year guide is the headline swing factor, with Reality Labs' loss trajectory and any early monetization signal from Meta AI/business messaging as secondary watch items. The 8.31% implied move compares with a 0.72% average realized move on the last eight prints (an 88% beat rate, +56.79% last surprise, itself inflated by that same tax item). Read-across: Microsoft reports the same evening on the Azure/capex comp; Alphabet's capex raise last week is the template being applied here; Reddit reports Thursday with ad growth reportedly still accelerating, a same-week check on whether the ad-pricing story is industry-wide. Sentiment note: analyst targets are split into the print (UBS cut to $766, Raymond James and Wells Fargo raised to $850/$835) with shares down roughly 10% year-to-date — expectations were reset before tonight's number. TradingKey

Procter & Gamble (PG), before the open. Consensus EPS of $1.41 implies a step-down from last quarter's $1.59 (88% of it) and sits a touch below the year-ago $1.48, a fiscal Q4 pattern rather than a demand signal on its own. The debate: organic sales trajectory against the reaffirmed FY26 band, continued Greater China stabilization in Pampers/SK-II after this year's earlier double-digit declines, progress on the roughly 7,000-role restructuring program running through FY2027, and tariff/commodity cost drag on margins. This is also the first full fiscal-year print under new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar's "Constructive Disruption" mandate, so FY2027 guidance framing carries extra weight on the call. The 3.16% implied move against a 1.98% average realized move on the last eight prints (a 100% beat rate, +2.22% last surprise) is a reasonably tame setup for a staples name. Read-across: none of Colgate, Kimberly-Clark or Clorox (which reports tomorrow) have printed yet, so P&G effectively sets this week's read-through tone for staples; some coverage frames a "flight to safety" rotation into the sector amid tech volatility — sentiment, not fact. Yahoo/Zacks

Lam Research (LRCX), after the close. Consensus EPS of $1.68 implies 115% of last quarter's $1.47, consistent with a still-strong 1/3/5/10y EPS CAGR set (+43.2%/+8.2%/+22.4%/+27.3%). The debate centers on NAND upgrade timing — management has flagged the bulk of 200+-layer conversion spend sliding toward 2027, so investors want confirmation of a second-half-2026 inflection rather than just DRAM/HBM and leading-edge logic strength — alongside China exposure, guided under 30% of FY2026 revenue (from 43% in the December quarter) under new export rules, with roughly a $600M CY2026 headwind already quantified. The 11.22% implied move sits well above the 2.49% average realized move on the last eight prints (a 100% beat rate, +7.87% last surprise). Read-across: KLA reported July 28 and beat, but shares fell roughly 6% intraday and another 8% after-hours on a soft FQ1'27 guide despite management calling underlying trends "strengthening" across foundry/logic, DRAM, NAND and advanced packaging — a cautionary read that a beat alone won't be enough here; ASML's mid-July beat-and-raise cited HBM/DDR memory strength, and Applied Materials has guided calendar-2026 equipment growth above 30%. Investing.com

Amphenol (APH), before the open. Consensus EPS of $1.19 implies 112% of last quarter's $1.06, versus $0.81 a year ago, extending a 1/3/5/10y EPS CAGR set of +74.3%/+29.7%/+27.9%/+18.7% — the steepest 1-year growth rate of today's group. The debate is almost entirely IT-datacom/AI-server connector demand and integration of the roughly $10.5B CommScope CCS acquisition that closed in January, Amphenol's largest deal ever; the market wants organic IT-datacom growth ex-CCS and early signs the ~$0.15 2026 EPS-accretion guide is tracking. Q1 was a blowout (record sales, IT-datacom organic growth cited near 81%), and sell-side estimates and targets (Citi, Barclays, BofA, TD Cowen) have moved up into this print. The 13.11% implied move against a 5.40% average realized move on the last eight prints (a 100% beat rate, +11.96% last surprise) is among the richer setups today. Read-across: TE Connectivity's late-July beat cited AI-datacom order growth up 70% year-to-date; Celestica beat and raised on hyperscaler AI-infrastructure capex; Vertiv reports this same morning, a same-day cross-check on data-center demand. PR Newswire

Qualcomm (QCOM), after the close. Consensus EPS of $2.22 sits below both last quarter's $2.65 (84% of it) and the year-ago $2.77, part of a broader trailing decline (1/3/5/10y EPS CAGR of -44.1%/-23.9%/+2.1%/+4.5%) that reflects two overlapping headwinds: the multi-year Apple modem wind-down (Qualcomm is expected to supply modems for only around 20% of iPhones this year, near zero by 2027) and a China handset air pocket that management itself guided as a likely trough this quarter, with Citi opening a negative-catalyst watch in July after reported Xiaomi/Oppo/Vivo shipment cuts. Diversification is the offsetting story — record auto revenue last quarter and a new data-center push (Dragonfly AI accelerators, a Meta CPU design win, a >$15B FY2029 data-center revenue target) — though neither yet offsets the handset/licensing decline in the numbers. The 9.10% implied move compares with a 3.30% average realized move on the last eight prints (a 100% beat rate, +3.34% last surprise). Read-across: Apple's in-house modem ramp is the mirror image of this decline; Samsung/Android OEMs on Snapdragon competitiveness versus MediaTek; Skyworks/Qorvo on RF content. Sentiment is described as "priced for a China bottom, not a China miss." MLQ Research

Starbucks (SBUX), after the close. Consensus EPS of $0.65 implies 130% of last quarter's $0.50 and is also above the year-ago $0.50, a seasonal step-up rather than a clean read on trend, against a still-negative 1/3-year EPS CAGR (-50.7%/-16.8%) that only turns positive at 5 years (+15.7%). The debate is whether Brian Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround is durable: last quarter delivered a third straight quarter of positive comps after seven consecutive declines, and management raised FY26 comp guidance to "at least 5%" — but labor investment and cafe redesigns have compressed margins even as sales recover, so the market wants proof the multi-year cost-reduction program is starting to offset that spend. China remains a structural overhang as Starbucks completes selling 60% of its China unit to Boyu Capital while Luckin Coffee, roughly 3x Starbucks' store count there, keeps expanding. The 6.31% implied move towers over a 0.75% average realized move (a weak 25% beat rate — the softest of today's group — and a +14.51% last surprise), a rich setup given that inconsistent beat record. Read-across: Chipotle reports the same day guiding to only around 1% comps, a test of whether the traffic story is Starbucks-specific; Yum Brands reports Thursday for a broader QSR data point. Motley Fool

Fortinet (FTNT), after the close. Consensus EPS of $0.75 implies 91% of last quarter's $0.82 but is above the year-ago $0.64, consistent with a strong long-run compounding record (1/3/5/10y EPS CAGR of +7.2%/+31.6%/+33.0%/+74.8%). The debate is whether Q1's reacceleration — product revenue up 41% year-over-year and billings up 31%, tied to the FortiOS 8.0/G-Series hardware refresh and AI-infrastructure/OT demand — is a genuine inflection or a one-quarter pop, and whether rising Unified SASE mix (24% of billings, up from 19% a year ago) confirms real share gains against Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler and CrowdStrike. Q2 guidance given alongside Q1 results called for billings growth near 20% and EPS of $0.72–0.76, with FY26 billings guidance raised on that same call. The 13.26% implied move towers over a 1.12% average realized move on the last eight prints (a 100% beat rate, +32.63% last surprise) — one of the richest implied-vs-realized gaps today. Read-across: Zscaler's soft FY27 growth guide in May sent that stock down roughly 31% and dragged Palo Alto and CrowdStrike with it, the cautionary comp here; Check Point reports tomorrow morning after guiding a lower FY26 outlook on firewall-appliance headwinds, a same-week read on hardware-refresh durability. Investing.com

Also reporting today

Another 46 S&P 500 names round out the day's calendar, led by a heavy industrials (13 names) and REIT (9 names) contingent alongside a scattering of tech, healthcare and consumer names. Two are worth flagging as same-day cross-checks on today's marquee prints: Vertiv, whose AI-datacenter power/cooling business is a direct read on the same hyperscaler capex debate framing Microsoft, Meta and Amphenol today, and Chipotle, reporting alongside Starbucks as the QSR comp on US consumer traffic. Equinix adds another data-center-capex data point to the mix.

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

42 of the names previewed in our last edition have now reported, and the standout since our last note is Boeing (BA), whose actual loss of $0.76 a share badly missed the $0.31 loss consensus we flagged (a -141.5% surprise) — the widest miss of the group and a reminder that its 50% trailing beat rate was the weakest of that day's marquee names. KLA Corporation (KLAC) beat its $1.00 consensus (actual $1.05, a +5.1% surprise), but shares reportedly still fell roughly 6% intraday and a further 8% after-hours on a soft forward guide, the same "beat isn't enough" dynamic now shadowing today's semicap names. Elsewhere the beats were broad and clean: Visa ($3.32 vs. $3.23), Coca-Cola ($0.97 vs. $0.93), Seagate ($5.71 vs. $5.09), S&P Global (a smaller miss, $4.83 vs. $5.00, tied to its recent Mobility Global spin-off) and UPS ($1.76 vs. $1.66) all landed roughly as previewed.

Rest of the week

The calendar peaks tomorrow: Thursday brings the week's two largest reporters — Apple and Amazon, both after the close — alongside Mastercard before the bell and a long tail of industrials, healthcare and utility names. Friday closes out the week with AbbVie, Chevron and Linde, a smaller, more defensive-leaning slate to end on.

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.