The Market Wrap.

At a glance: 3 S&P 500 names report today, all marquee — Home Depot before the open, Keysight Technologies and Jack Henry & Associates after the close.

The tape ahead

Home Depot leads the week reporting before the open under an interim office of the CEO following Ted Decker's medical leave, with the print landing a day ahead of new duties on a range of Canadian goods that take effect August 19 — forward tariff-mitigation commentary is arguably more market-moving than the quarter itself. Consensus of $4.73 implies a jump from the $3.43 reported last quarter (up 38% vs prev.Q.), which is mostly seasonal — fiscal Q2 is the peak spring/summer selling window — and revenue consensus follows the same seasonal shape (up 13.1% vs prev.Q.). The real swing factor is comp trajectory: full-year guidance calls for flat-to-2% comps against a Q1 print of +0.6%, and whether gross margin stabilizes after Q1's roughly 75bp of compression. The 1- and 3-year EPS CAGRs are both negative even as the 5- and 10-year trends stay solidly positive — a business still compounding over the cycle but under margin pressure the last two years. The 4.4% implied move sits well above the 2.4% average realized move on its last eight prints, and with only a 50% beat rate and a last surprise of just 0.7%, there isn't much of a track record to lean on either way. Pro-contractor demand through the SRS distribution business, set against a still-soft DIY and housing-turnover backdrop, is the read-across into Wednesday's retail block.

Keysight Technologies reports after the close with the Street unusually confident heading in: guidance called for Q3 revenue of $1.73–1.75B and EPS of $2.43–2.49, and consensus of $2.48 on $1.75B revenue sits at the top of that range, implying strong year-over-year growth on continued strength in semiconductor test, AI infrastructure and data-center demand plus new product launches. The one wrinkle is the sequential read: consensus EPS is down 13.5% vs prev.Q.'s $2.87, even as revenue holds roughly flat (up 1.8% vs prev.Q.) — a step-down that looks like normal seasonality after a strong fiscal Q2 rather than any change in trend, and the 1-year EPS CAGR of +40% (against a still-negative 3-year figure) confirms this is a cyclical snap-back more than a new growth regime. History backs the setup — an eight-quarter beat streak and a last surprise of +23.7% — but options are pricing far more drama than the stock has delivered: a 9.0% implied move against just a 0.8% average realized move over the last eight prints, the richest straddle of today's three names. A clean beat-and-raise here would read through positively for the broader semiconductor-capex and AI-infrastructure test complex.

Jack Henry & Associates closes out the day after the close, with its call the following morning; the company already pre-announced deconversion revenue — lost-client revenue broken out separately, a Jack Henry-specific disclosure quirk — on August 11, which tends to color how the main print is read. Consensus EPS of $1.44 is down 7.7% vs prev.Q.'s $1.56, with revenue essentially flat (down 0.8% vs prev.Q.) — a fiscal Q4 dip that Street commentary ties to elevated M&A-integration and cloud-transition investment spending rather than a demand problem. The bigger swing factor is the initial fiscal 2027 guide that typically accompanies the Q4 print: core-banking software peers are being judged on cloud-migration economics and win rates against Fiserv and FIS, and how Jack Henry frames that trajectory will matter more than the sequential EPS dip. History is favorable — an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters and a last surprise of +10.4% — but the 5.4% implied move is priced well above the 1.6% average realized move, leaving room for disappointment if the FY27 framework undershoots. The 5- and 10-year EPS CAGRs of +10.1% and +9.2% underline this as a steady compounder even through a soft quarter.

Prev Q EPS = last reported quarterly EPS; EPS and Rev. vs prev.Q = consensus against the last reported quarter, as a percentage difference (positive = sequential growth expected); a note under a figure flags an unusual comparison base — the percentage is correct but should not be read as a clean growth rate. Implied move = ATM straddle at the first expiry after the report; Hist. avg = mean absolute 1-day move over the last up-to-8 prints (red implied move = priced above history/rich, green = below/cheap). EPS 1Y/3Y/5Y/10Y = annualized EPS growth (CAGR) over the trailing fiscal years; “—” where annual history is too short or crosses a loss.
CompanyTimeCons. EPSEPS rangePrev Q EPSEPS vs prev.QRev. cons.Rev. vs prev.QImplied moveHist. avgBeat rateEPS 1YEPS 3YEPS 5YEPS 10Y
Home Depot (The) HD
Consumer Discretionary · $336.91B
Pre-open$4.73$4.64 – $4.86 · 30 est$3.43+38.0%$47.23B+13.1%4.4%2.4%50%-4.6%-5.2%+3.6%+10.0%
Keysight Technologies KEYS
Information Technology · $61.72B
After-close$2.48$2.45 – $2.55 · 12 est$2.87-13.5%$1.75B+1.8%9.0%0.8%100%+40.0%-7.3%+8.2%+5.1%
Jack Henry & Associates JKHY
Financials · $10.65B
After-close$1.44$1.41 – $1.46 · 9 est$1.56-7.7%$631.4M-0.8%5.4%1.6%88%+19.3%+8.1%+10.1%+9.2%

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Nothing carries over from yesterday's edition — Monday was itself an empty S&P print day, so there is nothing new to score today.

No results to score from the prior edition.

Rest of the week

Wednesday is by far the heaviest day left this week: Analog Devices opens the session as the industrial-semis read, alongside a stacked retail block — TJX, Lowe's, Ross Stores, Target and Estée Lauder — with Nordson closing it out after the close. Walmart provides the broadest read on the US consumer Thursday, the week's final print, alongside Deere.

DayCompanyTimeCons. EPSImplied move
Wednesday Aug 19
Analog Devices ADI
Pre-open$3.376.2%
TJX Companies TJX
Pre-open$1.204.6%
Lowe's LOW
Pre-open$4.29
Ross Stores ROST
TBD$1.97
Target Corporation TGT
Pre-open$2.31
Estée Lauder Companies (The) EL
Pre-open$0.33
Nordson Corporation NDSN
After-close$3.17
Thursday Aug 20
Walmart WMT
Pre-open$0.754.9%
Deere & Company DE
Pre-open$4.845.2%

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.

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