At a glance: 7 S&P 500 names report today, the heaviest session of the week — Analog Devices, TJX, Lowe's, Target and Estée Lauder all before the open, Ross Stores on unconfirmed timing, and Nordson after the close.

The tape ahead

Analog Devices opens the day before the bell as the cleanest read on the analog-semis recovery. Consensus of $3.34 sits at the top of management's own guide (up 8.1% vs prev.Q.; revenue's $3.93B is up 8.4% vs prev.Q.), so the bar already embeds another beat rather than an in-line quarter — the ninth straight if the 100% beat rate holds. Communications/data-center is the swing line for whether AI-infrastructure strength is broadening into core industrial and auto capex, where growth has lagged; management also guided roughly 50bp of sequential margin compression as a one-time channel-repricing benefit rolls off. The 6.46% implied move sits well above the 4.53% average realized move, and a +39.2% 1-year EPS CAGR against a still-negative 3-year figure argues this is a cyclical snapback, echoing the recovery already visible at Texas Instruments and ON Semi.

TJX also reports before the open on arguably the highest bar of the morning, after Q1 comps accelerated to +6% (from +3% a year prior) and pretax margin hit 12.0%, up 170bp. Consensus EPS of $1.19 is flat vs prev.Q.'s $1.19 (down 0.1% vs prev.Q.) even as revenue builds (up 5.9% vs prev.Q.) and sits above TJX's own $1.15–$1.17 guide — consistent with an eight-for-eight beat streak and a +17.2% last surprise. The debate is whether Q1's acceleration holds or fades; a packaway-inventory build near 41% of stock argues the off-price buying environment stays favorable. The 4.04% implied move versus a 2.58% realized average leaves room for a muted reaction even on a clean beat, and sets the tone for Ross Stores, which guided a hotter comp for the same quarter.

Lowe's follows immediately, its first full quarter with the newly closed Foundation Building Materials deal in the base — a first look at cross-sell traction on its pro-services push. Consensus EPS of $4.22 is up 39.4% vs prev.Q.'s $3.03 (largely seasonal — Q2 is the peak selling window) but down slightly from $4.33 a year ago, with full-year guidance still flat-to-+2% comps off a soft +0.6% Q1. Home Depot's beat yesterday (comps +1.7%, pro outperforming DIY) raises the bar: a soft Lowe's print right behind it reads as share loss, not a weak category. Sell-side is split into the print — some targets trimmed, others raised — with mortgage rates above 6% the persistent macro drag. The 1- and 3-year EPS CAGRs are negative even as 5- and 10-year growth stays solidly positive.

Ross Stores rounds out the retail block with timing still unconfirmed on the tape. Consensus EPS of $1.94 is down 4.0% vs prev.Q.'s $2.02 but well above last year's $1.56, coming off a Q1 that blew through plan (comp +17%) and prompted a raised full-year guide; the Q2 guide already bakes that bar in. New CEO Jim Conroy has framed tariff-driven supply-chain disruption as a near-term closeout tailwind rather than a risk. The 6.79% implied move towers over the 0.94% average realized move on the last eight prints — among the richest setups today — though an 88% beat rate and a +16.67% last surprise argue history favors the bulls.

Target carries the widest estimate spread of the day — $2.11 to $2.61 on 31 estimates — largely because analysts disagree how much of a tariff-duty refund lands this quarter versus later. Consensus of $2.34 implies a 36.7% jump vs prev.Q.'s $1.71, building on Q1's first comp-sales gain in five quarters (+5.6%) under permanent CEO Michael Fiddelke, who has since raised full-year sales-growth guidance to roughly 4% from 2%. The debate is whether that turnaround was durable or a low-base blip; last year's boycott, formally called off in March, is fading as a headwind, and Target has been visibly regaining general-merchandise traffic share from Walmart, which reports Thursday. Unusually, the 7.06% implied move sits below the 7.53% average realized move — options pricing calmer than history warrants. The 1-, 5- and 10-year EPS CAGRs are all negative-to-flat, underscoring how much rides on the turnaround sticking.

Estée Lauder closes the pre-open slate in its seasonally smallest quarter — fiscal Q4 is structurally the trough of the prestige-beauty sell-in cycle, and restructuring-charge recognition under its cost-savings program concentrates here too. That's why consensus EPS of $0.32 looks like a steep sequential drop vs prev.Q.'s $0.91 (down 65.2% vs prev.Q.), even though that prior quarter was itself an unusually strong base — a beat driven by outsized cost-program benefits and double-digit fragrance growth. Against last year's $0.09 the read is still a sharp improvement. The print turns on whether China and Hainan travel-retail outperformance continues and on the first look at an initial fiscal 2027 framework. The 9.41% implied move is priced almost exactly in line with the 9.32% average realized move, with an eight-quarter beat streak intact.

Nordson closes the day after the close, thinly covered at just seven estimates. Consensus EPS of $3.09 sits mid-to-upper in management's own guide (up 8.2% vs prev.Q., revenue up 5.2% vs prev.Q.), following a record quarter in which company-wide EBITDA margin hit 32%. The swing segment is Advanced Technology Solutions — electronics and semiconductor dispense — which grew sales 10% last quarter to an all-time high on AI-infrastructure-linked demand, with management calling the semiconductor cycle still early. The 3.41% implied move against a 1.54% average realized move leaves room for disappointment despite a 75% beat rate; a beat here reads through positively for semiconductor-capex-linked equipment names more broadly.

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Three names carry over from yesterday, all clean beats but a mixed tape. Home Depot beat on both lines (EPS $4.92 vs. $4.73 est., +3.97% surprise; revenue +1.35% surprise) with reported EPS up 43.4% vs prev.Q.'s $3.43, yet the stock barely moved on the print (-0.12%) — the reaction largely already priced in. Keysight Technologies beat far more emphatically (EPS $3.07 vs. $2.48 est., +23.69% surprise; revenue +5.60% surprise, EPS up 6.97% vs prev.Q.) and the stock followed through after hours (+2.46% AH). Jack Henry & Associates also beat cleanly on both lines (EPS $1.57 vs. $1.44 est., +9.03% surprise; revenue +1.99% surprise, EPS essentially flat vs prev.Q. at +0.64%) but still fell after hours (-1.21% AH) — a reaction that contradicts the surprise, with the market likely looking past the beat to the initial fiscal 2027 guide that typically accompanies the Q4 print.

Rest of the week

Thursday closes out the week with Walmart's broad read on the US consumer (consensus EPS $0.75, 5.14% implied move) alongside Deere (consensus EPS $4.84, 5.28% implied move).

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.