The Market Wrap.

At a glance: One S&P 500 name reports today — Constellation Brands, after the close. Nothing to grade from the prior edition; PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines round out the rest of the week.

The tape ahead

Constellation Brands carries the Street's most-watched consumer-demand debate into the print: Modelo and Corona lean on a Hispanic-American consumer base management itself has flagged as pulling back, a pullback that has coincided with the beer portfolio's first volume declines in a decade, and tariffs on imported aluminum cans add a second, separate margin headwind on top of that softer demand. Full-year beer guidance has already been cut more than once this fiscal year and now brackets roughly flat-to-slightly-negative net sales growth, with the newer growth brands — Pacifico and Victoria — left to offset ongoing Modelo and Corona softness. The sell side is split on whether that bar is now low enough: at least one widely-followed shop has argued the guidance is overly conservative and set up to be cleared, even as others have trimmed price targets on concern the consumer pullback persists into the holidays. Consensus EPS of $3.55 (up 3.5% vs prev.Q.) and revenue of $2.54B (up 4.3% vs prev.Q.) would mark a sequential acceleration, though it's a modest one set against a nearly flat 5-year EPS growth trend (+1.0% annualized) that sits well below the 10-year pace (+6.4%) — the business has decelerated hard from its own history, and today's numbers are a read on whether that deceleration is leveling off. Constellation has beaten consensus in 6 of its last 8 quarters, including a 7.1% surprise last time out, with realized one-day moves on print day averaging 4.9%; today's 5.3% implied move prices slightly above that history, consistent with a setup that still has real two-way risk in it. Gross margin in the last reported quarter rose 4.7 points to 54.3%, and net margin jumped 16.4 points to 26.9% — a seasonal recovery out of the fiscal fourth quarter's winter lull and into the stronger spring selling season, worth noting as context rather than a signal on tonight's print.

EPS and Rev. vs prev.Q = consensus against the last reported quarter, as a percentage difference (positive = sequential growth expected); a note under a figure flags an unusual comparison base — the percentage is correct but should not be read as a clean growth rate. GM / NM prev.Q = gross and net margin in the last reported quarter, from that quarter's own income statement, with the move against the quarter before it underneath in percentage points (pp); gross margin is “—” for banks and insurers, which do not report a gross profit. Implied move = ATM straddle at the first expiry on or after the report; where that expiry is more than a week out — a name with no weekly options, most often the monthly — a note under the figure says so, because the straddle then prices those extra weeks and not just the print. Hist. avg = mean absolute 1-day move over the last up-to-8 prints (red implied move = priced above history/rich, green = below/cheap; left uncoloured where the expiry is too far out for that comparison to mean anything). EPS 1Y/3Y/5Y/10Y = annualized EPS growth (CAGR) over the trailing fiscal years; “—” where annual history is too short or crosses a loss.
CompanyTimeCons. EPSEPS rangeEPS vs prev.QRev. cons.Rev. vs prev.QGM / NM prev.QImplied moveHist. avgBeat rateEPS 1YEPS 3YEPS 5YEPS 10Y
Constellation Brands STZ
Consumer Staples · $19.35B
After-close$3.55$3.25 – $3.88 · 19 est+3.5%$2.54B+4.3%54.3% / 26.9%
+4.7 / +16.4 pp
5.3%4.9%75%——+1.0%+6.4%

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Nothing to grade this morning — the prior edition had no names to score.

No results to score from the prior edition.

Rest of the week

Only two names remain on the calendar, both pre-open. PepsiCo reports Thursday with consensus EPS of $2.32 against last quarter's $2.20. Delta closes out the week Friday carrying the week's largest implied move at 5.7%, with consensus EPS of $1.99 against last quarter's $1.56 and the focus on what management says about fourth-quarter capacity and leisure demand now that the post-Labor Day travel lull is underway.

Prev Q EPS = last reported quarterly EPS, for reading consensus against the quarter just gone. Implied move = the move the options market is pricing for the print, from the at-the-money straddle at the first expiry on or after the report date; quoted for the largest names each day, “—” elsewhere. Where that expiry is more than a week out, a note says so — the figure then spans those extra weeks rather than the print alone.
DayCompanyTimeCons. EPSPrev Q EPSImplied move
Thursday Oct 8
PepsiCo PEP
Pre-open$2.32$2.203.8%
Friday Oct 9
Delta Air Lines DAL
Pre-open$1.99$1.565.7%

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.

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