At a glance: One S&P 500 name reports today — Constellation Brands, after the close. Nothing to grade from the prior edition; PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines round out the rest of the week.
The tape ahead
Constellation Brands carries the Street's most-watched consumer-demand debate into the print: Modelo and Corona lean on a Hispanic-American consumer base management itself has flagged as pulling back, a pullback that has coincided with the beer portfolio's first volume declines in a decade, and tariffs on imported aluminum cans add a second, separate margin headwind on top of that softer demand. Full-year beer guidance has already been cut more than once this fiscal year and now brackets roughly flat-to-slightly-negative net sales growth, with the newer growth brands — Pacifico and Victoria — left to offset ongoing Modelo and Corona softness. The sell side is split on whether that bar is now low enough: at least one widely-followed shop has argued the guidance is overly conservative and set up to be cleared, even as others have trimmed price targets on concern the consumer pullback persists into the holidays. Consensus EPS of $3.55 (up 3.5% vs prev.Q.) and revenue of $2.54B (up 4.3% vs prev.Q.) would mark a sequential acceleration, though it's a modest one set against a nearly flat 5-year EPS growth trend (+1.0% annualized) that sits well below the 10-year pace (+6.4%) — the business has decelerated hard from its own history, and today's numbers are a read on whether that deceleration is leveling off. Constellation has beaten consensus in 6 of its last 8 quarters, including a 7.1% surprise last time out, with realized one-day moves on print day averaging 4.9%; today's 5.3% implied move prices slightly above that history, consistent with a setup that still has real two-way risk in it. Gross margin in the last reported quarter rose 4.7 points to 54.3%, and net margin jumped 16.4 points to 26.9% — a seasonal recovery out of the fiscal fourth quarter's winter lull and into the stronger spring selling season, worth noting as context rather than a signal on tonight's print.
| Company | Time | Cons. EPS | EPS range | EPS vs prev.Q | Rev. cons. | Rev. vs prev.Q | GM / NM prev.Q | Implied move | Hist. avg | Beat rate | EPS 1Y | EPS 3Y | EPS 5Y | EPS 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Constellation Brands STZ Consumer Staples · $19.35B | After-close | $3.55 | $3.25 – $3.88 · 19 est | +3.5% | $2.54B | +4.3% | 54.3% / 26.9% +4.7 / +16.4 pp | 5.3% | 4.9% | 75% | — | — | +1.0% | +6.4% |
Scorecard — reported since we last wrote
Nothing to grade this morning — the prior edition had no names to score.
No results to score from the prior edition.
Rest of the week
Only two names remain on the calendar, both pre-open. PepsiCo reports Thursday with consensus EPS of $2.32 against last quarter's $2.20. Delta closes out the week Friday carrying the week's largest implied move at 5.7%, with consensus EPS of $1.99 against last quarter's $1.56 and the focus on what management says about fourth-quarter capacity and leisure demand now that the post-Labor Day travel lull is underway.
| Day | Company | Time | Cons. EPS | Prev Q EPS | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday Oct 8 | PepsiCo PEP | Pre-open | $2.32 | $2.20 | 3.8% |
| Friday Oct 9 | Delta Air Lines DAL | Pre-open | $1.99 | $1.56 | 5.7% |
Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.